(AGENPARL) – mer 06 dicembre 2023 Global Systems
Institute
Funded by:
Report Partners:
To access full report
global-tipping-points.org
Global
Tipping
Points
Report 2023
Lead by:
Global Systems
Institute
Funded by:
Global
Tipping
Points
Report 2023
Timothy M. Lenton:
Report lead: Global Systems Institute (GSI), University of Exeter, UK
David I. Armstrong McKay:
Section 1 lead: GSI, University of Exeter, UK; Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC),
Stockholm University, Sweden; Earth Commission
Sina Loriani:
Section 1 lead: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Member of the Leibniz
Association, Germany; Earth Commission
Global Systems
Institute
Report Partners:
Funded by:
This work is published under a Creative Commons
Open Access licence CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 which
permits re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium for non-commercial purposes providing
appropriate credit to the original work is given.
You may not distribute derivative works without
permission. To view a copy of this licence, visit:
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
All versions of this work may contain content
reproduced under licence from third parties.
Permission to reproduce this third-party content
must be obtained from these third-parties directly.
Jesse F. Abrams: Section 2 lead:
GSI, University of Exeter, UK; Earth Commission
Disclaimer:
The views expressed throughout the report are that of the authors and their individual
capacities not those of their employers, institutions, or the report’s funder Bezos
Earth Fund as a whole. All liability with respect to actions taken or not taken based on
the content of this report is hereby expressly disclaimed. The content of this report is
provided “as is” no representations are made that the content is error-free.
Suggested Executive Summary citation:
T. M. Lenton, L. Laybourn, T. M. Lenton, D.I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F.
Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, S.R. Smith, Bailey. E,T. Powell, L.
Fesenfeld, C. Zimm, C. A.Boulton, J.E. Buxton, J. D Dyke, A. Ghadiali (2023), Global
Tipping Points Report 2023: Executive Summary.’ in [T. M. Lenton, D.I. Armstrong
McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S.R.
Smith, C. Zimm,J.E. Buxton, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J. Dyke (eds), 2023,
The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.
University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Steven J. Lade:
Section 2 lead: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University;
SRC, Stockholm University, Sweden
Jonathan F. Donges:
Section 2 lead: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany; SRC,
Stockholm University, Sweden
Manjana Milkoreit:
Section 3 lead: University of Oslo, Norway; Norwegian Institute for Foreign Affairs
Tom Powell: Section 4 lead:
GSI, University of Exeter, UK
Steven R. Smith: Section 4 lead:
GSI, University of Exeter, UK; Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity,
University of Surrey, UK
Caroline Zimm:
Section 4 lead: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; Earth Commission
Contents
Joshua E. Buxton:
Section 2 lead (Paternity Cover): GSI, University of Exeter, UK
Global tipping points pathwaysinfographic
James G. Dyke:
Report Framing Editor: GSI, University of Exeter, UK
Narative summary
Key messages
Ashish Ghadiali:
Report Framing Editor: Radical Ecology; UK; GSI, Visiting Fellow, University of Exeter
Key recomendations
Earth system tipping points
Laurie Laybourn:
Report Framing Editor: Chatham House, UK; GSI, Visiting Fellow, University of Exeter
Tipping point impacts
Governance of earth system tipping points
©The Global Tipping Points Report 2023, University of Exeter, UK
Positive tipping points in technology, economy and society
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
global-tipping-points.org
Authors:
Timothy M. Lenton, Laurie Laybourn,
David I. Armstrong McKay, Sina Loriani,
Jesse F. Abrams, Steven J. Lade,
Jonathan F. Donges, Manjana Milkoreit,
Narrative
summary
Steven R. Smith, Emma Bailey, Tom Powell,
Lukas Fesenfeld, Caroline Zimm,
Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton,
James G. Dyke, Ashish Ghadiali
E A R T H S Y S T E M
P O S I T I V E
T I P P I N G P O I N T S
POSI TIVE
TIPPI N G
IMPACTS
MITIGATION
TIPPI N G
POIN TS
PREVEN TIO N
For example, the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s great
overturning circulation combined with global warming could cause
half of the global area for growing wheat and maize to be lost.
Five major tipping points are already at risk of being crossed due
to warming right now and three more are threatened in the 2030s
as the world exceeds 1.5°C global warming.
E A R T H S Y S T E M
T I P P I N G P O I N T S
The full damage caused by negative tipping points will be far
greater than their initial impact. The effects will cascade through
globalised social and economic systems, and could exceed the
ability of some countries to adapt. Negative tipping points show
that the threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far
more severe than is commonly understood and is of a magnitude
never before faced by humanity.
T I P P I N G P O I N T S
I M P A C T S
S O C I O E C O N O M I C
I M P A C T S
Harmful tipping points in the natural world
pose some of the gravest threats faced
by humanity. Their triggering will severely
damage our planet’s life-support systems
and threaten the stability of our societies.
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
Currently, there is no adequate global governance at the scale
of the threats posed by negative tipping points. The world is
on a disastrous trajectory. Crossing one harmful tipping point
could trigger others, causing a domino effect of accelerating and
unmanageable change to our life-support systems. Preventing this
– and doing so equitably – should become the core goal and logic
of a new global governance framework. Prevention is only possible
if societies and economic systems are transformed to rapidly
reduce emissions and restore nature.
The current approach of linear incremental change favoured by
many decision makers is no longer an option. Existing governance
institutions and decision-making approaches need to adapt to
facilitate transformational change.
Crucial to achieving transformational change are positive
tipping point opportunities, where desirable changes in
society become self-propelling. Concerted actions can create
the enabling conditions for triggering rapid and large-scale
transformation. Human history is flush with examples of abrupt
social and technological change. Recent examples include the
exponential increases in renewable electricity, the global reach of
environmental justice movements, and the accelerating rollout of
electric vehicles. Negative tipping point threats could be mitigated
if there was a vast effort to trigger other positive tipping point
opportunities.
Unfortunately, in the time lag during which appropriate
governance and action might be realised, negative tipping points
could still be triggered. This means that societies must urgently
be made more resilient to minimise the vast and unequal harms.
Critically, more resilient societies are also needed to ensure that
collective focus on triggering positive tipping point opportunities
can be sustained even through a negative tipping event. This
resiliency can be achieved with ‘no regrets’ actions that anyway
make societies more sustainable, equitable and prosperous.
The existence of tipping points means that ‘business as usual’ is
now over. Rapid changes to nature and society are occurring, and
more are coming. If we don’t revise our governance approach,
these changes could overwhelm societies as the natural world
rapidly comes apart. Alternatively, with emergency global action
and appropriate governance, collective interventions could
harness the power of positive tipping point opportunities, helping
navigate toward a thriving sustainable future.
global-tipping-points.org
KEY MESSAGE
THESE TIPPING POINTS POSE
THREATS OF A MAGNITUDE NEVER
BEFORE FACED BY HUMANITY.
Environmental stresses could become so severe that large
parts of the natural world are unable to maintain their current
state, leading to abrupt and/or irreversible changes. These
moments are called Earth system ‘tipping points’. Five major
tipping systems are already at risk of crossing tipping points at
the present level of global warming: The Greenland and West
Antarctic Ice Sheets, warm-water coral reefs, North Atlantic
subpolar gyre circulation, and permafrost regions.
These threats could materialise in the coming decades, and at
lower levels of global warming than previously thought. They
could be catastrophic, including global-scale loss of capacity
to grow major staple crops. Triggering one Earth system
tipping point could trigger another, causing a domino effect of
accelerating and unmanageable damage. Tipping points show
that the overall threat posed by the climate and ecological
crisis is far more severe than is commonly understood.
KEY MESSAGE
UN IVERS ITY O F EXETER GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT
POSING
THREATS
I RREV ERSI B LE
C HANG E
messages
CLIMATE CHANGE AND
NATURE LOSS COULD SOON
CAUSE ‘TIPPING POINTS’ IN
THE NATURAL WORLD.
global-tipping-points.org
A scale and pace of action necessary to mitigate tipping
point threats can be achieved, partly because similar tipping
dynamics exist in societies, and can work in our favour.
These positive tipping point opportunities can be exploited,
whereby coordinated strategic interventions can lead to
disproportionately large and rapid benefits that accelerate
the transition of societies toward sustainability. This is already
happening in some cases. For example, targeted actions by
innovators, governments, investors and companies have created
economies of scale that are now propelling the exponential
uptake of renewable energy worldwide, which has reached or
exceeded cost parity with fossil fuel power generation.
KEY MESSAGE
‘POSITIVE TIPPING POINTS’ CAN
ACCELERATE A TRANSFORMATION
TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY.
Some Earth system tipping points may still be triggered in the time it
takes us to undertake global emergency action. Mitigating risk is still
possible, by reducing vulnerability, and becomes ever more urgent,
because each manifestation of a tipping point threat diverts attention
and resources to disaster response, eroding away some of our agency
to tackle the underlying drivers. This increases the risk of triggering
more Earth system tipping points, creating a vicious cycle.
KEY MESSAGE
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
EVEN WITH URGENT GLOBAL ACTION,
SOME EARTH SYSTEM TIPPING POINTS
MAY BE UNAVOIDABLE.
ACCELERATING
TRANSFORMATIONS
Global governance is currently inadequate to minimise
tipping point threats and to do so equitably. Governance
is needed across multiple scales to address the different
drivers, potentially rapid changes, and diverse, often
irreversible, impacts of tipping points. An immediate
priority for governance actors is to set an agenda for
developing this framework. Governance must also guard
against counter-productive reactions to tipping point
threats, such as the misguided reliance on speculative
solar geoengineering approaches.
KEY MESSAGE
This will multiply crises in the same way that the
COVID-19 pandemic caused cascading stress to societies
and economic systems globally, with unequal and
unjust consequences. These impacts could escalate to
threaten the breakdown of economic, social and political
systems, triggering destructive tipping points in societies
experiencing stresses beyond their ability to cope.
V I C I O US
CYC LE
URGE NT
ACTION
STOPPING THESE THREATS
IS POSSIBLE BUT REQUIRES
URGENT GLOBAL ACTION.
KEY MESSAGE
TRI G G ERI NG
DESTRU CTI O N
THE EFFECTS OF TIPPING
POINTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED
AND AMPLIFIED THROUGHOUT
OUR GLOBALISED WORLD.
global-tipping-points.org
The ultimate risk presented by Earth system tipping points is that
they cascade, creating a growing momentum that undermines
our collective ability to deal with the vicious cycle of escalating
consequences. But both protecting and enhancing our collective
ability to realise positive tipping point opportunities – even as
damaging events escalate – can create a powerful countereffect, avoiding spiralling disaster. Doing so means urgently
making our societies more resilient to this new era of rapid
change and implementing equitable global governance.
KEY MESSAGE
POSITIVE TIPPING POINTS CAN
CREATE A POWERFUL COUNTEREFFECT TO THE RISK OF EARTH
SYSTEM TIPPING POINTS
CASCADING OUT OF CONTROL.
Improving understanding of tipping point threats and opportunities in
both nature and societies is an urgent priority to support governance
and decision making, with the aim to limit harm and support
transformations to sustainability. But this quest for knowledge must
not delay or slow action. We know enough to identify that the threat
of Earth system tipping points demands an urgent response. Indeed,
our best models likely underestimate tipping point risks. The world is
largely flying blind into this vast threat.
KEY MESSAGE
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
WE NEED A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING
OF TIPPING POINTS – BUT WITHOUT
DELAYING ACTION.
A POWERFUL
COUNTER-EFF ECT
Many areas of society have the potential to be ‘tipped’, including
politics, social norms, and mindsets. But these opportunities are not
realised on their own. Concerted and coordinated action is usually
needed to create the enabling conditions for triggering positive
tipping points. Once near a tipping point, it may even be triggered by
relatively small groups with targeted action. Appropriate governance
can enable this process and is required to equitably manage its knockon effects, so that all parts of society can engage with and benefit
from tipping point opportunities.
KEY MESSAGE
For example, as electric vehicles pass a positive tipping point
towards becoming a dominant form of transport, this reduces
the costs of battery technology. Lower-cost batteries in turn
provide essential storage capacity to reinforce the positive
tipping point to renewable power, which can trigger another
tipping point in producing green ammonia for fertilisers,
shipping, and so on.
A DEEPER
U NDERSTANDI NG
CO ORDINATED
ACTION
TRIGGERING POSITIVE TIPPING
POINTS REQUIRES COORDINATED
ACTION THAT CONSIDERS EQUITY
AND JUSTICE.
KEY MESSAGE
POSI TI V E
C HANG E
ONE POSITIVE TIPPING POINT
CAN TRIGGER OTHERS, CREATING
A DOMINO EFFECT OF POSITIVE
CHANGE.
global-tipping-points.org
recommendations
STRENGTHEN
ADAPTATION AND
LOSS-AND-DAMAGE
GOVERNANCE.
Some Earth system tipping points are now likely to
be triggered, causing severe and spatially uneven
impacts on societies and interconnected ecological,
social, and economic systems. Tipping point impacts
will be felt worst by the most vulnerable communities
within and between nations, with knock-on impacts
for global inequality, the stability of the world
economy, and geopolitics. This provides an urgent
impetus to strengthen adaptation and loss-and
-damage governance in the UNFCCC, adjusting
existing frameworks and increasing resources to
account for tipping point threats.
UN IVERS ITY O F EXETER GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT
CONVENE A
GLOBAL SUMMIT
ON TIPPING POINTS.
The UN Secretary General should convene a
global summit on the governance agenda for
managing Earth system tipping point risks and
maximising coordination on triggering positive
tipping point opportunities to speed up mitigation
and resilience. It should provide a forum for
government, industry, and civil society. As a matter
of urgency, tipping point threats should also
feature on the agenda of key international fora,
including the 2024 meeting of the G20 in Brazil.
INCLUDE TIPPING
POINTS IN NDCS AND
THE GLOBAL STOCKTAKE.
Considerations of Earth system tipping point risks,
corresponding action, and positive tipping point
opportunities should be included in the Global Stocktake
(GST), future revisions of Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs), and in associated national and
sub-national policy measures. Future GSTs should assess
collective progress towards preventing Earth system
tipping points, addressing potential impacts, and fostering
positive tipping points. All future NDCs should include
national-scale systemic assessments of exposure to tipping
point risks, measures that contribute to the prevention of
tipping points, plans for managing potential impacts, and
strategies for fostering positive tipping points
Coordinated action by coalitions of state
and non-state actors across governance,
business and civil society can bring forward
positive tipping points in politics, economies,
technology, culture, and behaviour. A focus
on ‘super-leverage points’ – for example
policy mandates in high-emitting sectors such
as power, road transport, green hydrogen/
ammonia and food – could create a cascade of
positive changes.
PHASE OUT FOSSIL
FUELS AND LAND
USE EMISSIONS NOW.
The scale of threat posed by Earth system
tipping points underlines the critical importance
of the 1.5?C temperature goal and means
that global mitigation should now assume an
emergency footing. Fossil fuel emissions should
be phased out worldwide before 2050. A rapid
end to land use change emissions and shift
to worldwide ecological restoration are also
needed. Countries should reassess their highest
possible ambitions accordingly, particularly
wealthy, high-emitting nations.
COORDINATE
POLICY EFFORTS TO
TRIGGER POSITIVE
TIPPING POINTS.
DEEPEN KNOWLEDGE
OF TIPPING POINTS
AND ITS TRANSLATION
INTO ACTION.
The above efforts should be supported by investment
in improved scientific knowledge and monitoring
of negative and positive tipping points, and a much
improved science-policy engagement process to
more effectively and rapidly convert knowledge into
action. To help stimulate this process, we support
calls for an IPCC Special Report on Tipping Points in
the current assessment cycle.
global-tipping-points.org
Current
state of
knowledge
A.1. More than 25 Earth system tipping points have been identified
from evidence of past changes, observational records and
computer models. (Chapters 1.2, 1.3, 1.4)
A.1.1. In the cryosphere, six Earth system tipping points are identified,
including large-scale tipping points for the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets. Localised tipping points likely exist for glaciers and
permafrost thaw. Evidence for large-scale tipping dynamics in sea
A.1.2. In the biosphere, 16 Earth system tipping points are identified,
including forest dieback (e.g. in the Amazon), savanna and dryland
degradation, lake eutrophication, die-off of coral reefs, mangroves,
A.1.3. In ocean and atmosphere circulations, four Earth system
tipping points are identified, in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC), the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), the
Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation and the West African
A.2. Some Earth system tipping points are no longer high-impact,
low-likelihood events, they are rapidly becoming high-impact,
high-likelihood events. (Chapters 1.2, 1.3, 1.4)
Executive/technical summary
A.2.1. Multiple drivers are destabilising tipping systems, including
climate change for most as well as habitat loss (e.g. deforestation),
nutrient pollution and air pollution for some. Multiple drivers,
interactions and feedback loops can make tipping thresholds difficult
A.2.2. Already, at today’s 1.2°C global warming, tipping of
warm-water coral reefs is likely and we cannot rule out that four
other systems may pass tipping points: the ice sheets of Greenland
and West Antarctica, the North Atlantics Subpolar Gyre circulation,
A.2.3. Passing 1.5°C global warming, widespread mortality in
warm-water coral reefs becomes very likely, and another three
potential tipping systems start to become vulnerable: boreal forest,
Earth system
tipping points
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
A.2.4. At 2°C global warming and beyond, several more systems
could tip, including the Amazon rainforest and subglacial basins in
East Antarctica, and irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets is likely to become locked in.
A.2.5. Some systems can cross tipping points due to other drivers, or
have their warming thresholds reduced by other human pressures,
with for example Amazon dieback possible at lower warming if
A.3. Earth’s tipping systems can interact in ways that destabilise
one another, making tipping ‘cascades’ possible. (Chapter 1.5)
A.3.1. Tipping systems in the climate are closely coupled together.
Hence a tipping point in one system can have significant implications
A.3.2. Most interactions between climate tipping systems are
destabilising, tending to destabilise the Earth system beyond the
A.3.3. Global warming is rapidly approaching levels that could
trigger individual tipping points in systems that can interact with and
A.3.4. Tipping ‘cascades’, where tipping one system causes another
tipping point to be passed, and so on, are possible but currently
A.4. Early warning signals have been detected that are consistent
with the Greenland Ice Sheet, AMOC, and Amazon rainforest
heading towards tipping points. (Chapter 1.6)
A.4.1. Loss of resilience (the ability to recover from perturbations)
is expected before reaching a tipping point, but does not directly
A.4.2. Loss of resilience can occur in systems without tipping points,
hence independent evidence that a system is prone to tipping is
needed before interpreting loss of resilience as a tipping point early
A.4.3. The central western Greenland ice sheet, AMOC, and
Amazon rainforest all have independent evidence of being prone
to tipping and show observational evidence of loss of resilience
A.5. The risks of crossing Earth system tipping points can be
minimised through rapidly reducing anthropogenic drivers of
global change. (Chapters 1.2, 1.3, 1.4)
A.5.1. Urgently and ambitiously reducing greenhouse gas emissions
can limit the risks of crossing tipping points in the cryosphere,
biosphere, ocean and atmosphere circulation.
A.5.2. Rapidly reducing other climate forcing agents, such as black
carbon for the cryosphere, and aerosols for the monsoons, can
further limit the risk of crossing specific tipping points. (Chapters
A.5.3. The risk of crossing biosphere tipping points can be minimised
through a combined approach of rapidly reducing climate forcing
and other interacting drivers such as deforestation, habitat loss
and pollution, together with ecological restoration, inclusive
global-tipping-points.org
Priorities to
advance
knowledge
A.6. Deep uncertainties about Earth system tipping points can be
reduced. (Chapters 1.2, 1.3, 1.4)
A.6.1. Short observational records and limited resolution of
important feedback processes in models make assessing the
existence and likelihood of tipping points difficult for many systems.
A.6.2. Key process uncertainties include: in the cryosphere, the
potential for a marine ice cliff instability; in the biosphere, the
complex interactions between ecohydrological and fire feedbacks;
Recommendation:
A.6.3. Research funders, knowledge institutions and scientists
should invest in reducing uncertainties surrounding the existence
and likelihood of specific Earth system tipping points through
targeted palaeo-data gathering, Earth observations, model
development, knowledge sharing across disciplines, and a
systematic model intercomparison project.
A.7. Assessment of Earth system tipping point interactions and
possible cascades can be improved. (Chapter 1.5)
BIOSPHERE
Tropical dry forest
Tropical rainforest
Boreal forest
Tundra
Savannas & Grasslands
Drylands
CRYOSPHERE
Lakes
Coral Reefs
Mangroves
Fisheries
Seagrass
Kelp forest
Greenland Ice Sheet
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Non-marine East Antarctica
Marine basins East Antarctica
Permafrost
Mountain Glaciers
OCEAN & ATMOSPHERE CIRCULATIONS
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
Subpolar Gyre (SPG)
Southern Ocean Overturning
West African monsoon
Figure 1: Schematic of the alternative futures encapsulated in this report – one of damaging Earth system tipping points, tipping point
impacts, and negative socio-economic tipping points – or one of positive tipping points behind a just transformation.
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
A.7.1. Earth system models can be improved to represent more
tipping system interactions. Large ensembles of model runs can be
used to detect less common but potentially important interactions.
Direct causal interactions and indirect feedbacks – e.g. via changes
A.7.2. Palaeoclimate records of past abrupt changes can help
identify and understand tipping point interactions and possible
cascades. Methods of inferring causality can be applied to
observational data to detect tipping system interactions.
Recommendation:
A.7.4. Research funders, knowledge institutions and scientists
should invest in improving assessment of tipping point
interactions and possible cascades through the development and
use of Earth system models, causal analysis of palaeoclimate and
observation data, and expert elicitation.
A.8. Early warning of Earth system tipping points can be
improved. (Chapter 1.6)
A.8.1. Model experiments can be designed and used to identify
which observable variables and associated statistics are most
promising to provide early warning signals of specific tipping points,
A.8.2. Tipping point detection and early warning methods can
be improved, with the application of machine learning showing
A.8.3. For slow-tipping systems, such as ocean overturning
circulations, investment in palaeo-data reconstructions can
improve the potential to detect tipping point early warning signals.
A.8.4. For fast-tipping systems, such as ecosystems, the reliability of
early warning signals can be improved by reducing biases in satellite
remote sensing data caused by missing data and by merging of
Recommendation:
A.8.5. Research funders, knowledge institutions and scientists
should invest in improving early warning of Earth system
tipping points through refining methods, use of models to guide
monitoring efforts, palaeo-data gathering and improving
remotely sensed datasets.
A.7.3. A fresh elicitation of expert knowledge could help identify
global-tipping-points.org
Current
state of
knowledge
B.1. Crossing Earth system tipping points would have severe
impacts on people and biodiversity. (Chapter 2.2)
B.1.1. Amazon dieback, ice sheet collapse, permafrost thawing
and collapse of the AMOC have the potential for severe impacts
on water, food and energy security, health, ecosystem services,
communities and economies. (Chapter 2.2)
B.1.2. Amazon dieback would be a catastrophe for biodiversity,
would add to global and regional warming, could put 6 million
people at direct risk from extreme heat stress and cause between
US$1 trillion and US$3.5 trillion in economic damages. (Chapter
B.1.3. Antarctic ice sheet instability leading to a potential sea level
rise of two metres by 2100 would expose 480 million people to
B.1.4. Permafrost thawing would add significantly to global
warming, it already damages property and infrastructure, and
70% of current infrastructure in permafrost regions is in areas with
B.1.5. An AMOC collapse could substantially reduce crop
productivity across large areas of the world, with profound
B.2. Negative social tipping points triggered by climate change
and Earth system tipping could have catastrophic impacts on
human societies. (Chapter 2.3)
Tipping point
impacts
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
B.2.1. Escalating Earth system destabilisation threatens to
disrupt societal cohesion, increase mental disorders and amplify
radicalisation and polarisation. It has the potential to escalate
violent conflicts, mass displacement and financial instability.
(Chapter 2.3)
B.2.2. Negative social tipping points would hamper collective
mitigation efforts and capacities to respond effectively to Earth
system destabilisation, thus impeding the realisation of positive
futures. (Chapter 2.3)
B.2.3. If societies fail to re-stabilise the Earth system we will not
stay in a business-as-usual state. Instead, negative social tipping
will bring about another social system state, likely characterised
by greater authoritarianism, hostility, discord and alienation.
(Chapter 2.3).
B.3. Negative social tipping points could cascade to create
systemic risk. (Chapter 2.4)
B.3.1. Although empirical evidence is currently scarce,
extrapolating known feedbacks in complex human-natural
systems suggests that tipping points in social and natural systems
could plausibly cascade, with catastrophic risks for human
wellbeing. (Chapter 2.4)
B.3.2. Less is known about cascades from Earth’s tipping systems
to socio-economic systems than those between Earth’s tipping
systems. This is due to limited experience, and time lags between
crossing Earth system tipping points and the reaction of social
systems. (Chapters 2.3, 2.4)
B.3.3. Research on tipping cascades in human systems thus far has
focused on accelerating mitigation action, rather than preparing
for potential consequences of physical climate risks. (Chapters 2.2,
2.3, 2.4)
B.4. Early warning signals can be used to anticipate impact
tipping points. (Chapter 2.5)
B.4.1. Methods used to detect tipping points and loss of resilience
in Earth’s tipping systems (e.g. the Amazon rainforest) can be
applied to anticipate tipping points in socio-economic impacts.
(Chapter 2.5)
B.4.2. Recent applications of these methods have shown valuable
early warning information of changes in food insecurity, and of
land degradation in managed vegetation systems. (Chapter 2.5)
B.4.3. New datasets such as social media data and new
technologies like deep learning have the potential to enhance the
ability to anticipate tipping points in socio-economic impacts.
(Chapter 2.5)
global-tipping-points.org
Priorities to
advance
knowledge
B.5. Improved assessments of the impacts of Earth system tipping
points and negative social tipping points are urgently needed.
(Chapters 2.2, 2.3)
B.5.1. There is uneven and incomplete assessment of the impacts
of Earth system tipping points on people, social systems and
ecosystems, with almost no work on understanding the vast range of
potential human and social impacts. (Chapters 2.2, 2.3)
B.6.3. Monitoring programmes are needed to systematically gather
data about potential tipping point interactions over long periods of
time, founded on research into which variables to monitor. (Chapter
Recommendation:
B.5.2. Existing assessments of the economic impacts of crossing
Earth system tipping points often systematically underestimate the
risks. (Chapters 2.2, 2.3)
B.6.4. Knowledge institutions and research funders should support
coordinated, interdisciplinary research programms focused on
building understanding of interactions between climate and social
tipping points and their role in the emergence of systemic risk.
(Chapter 2.4)
B.5.3. Assessments need to go beyond economic damages to
broader human, social and cultural impacts of crossing Earth system
tipping points. (Chapters 2.2, 2.3)
B.7. Improving capacity to anticipate negative tipping points can
provide increased opportunity to pre-emptively adapt and reduce
vulnerability to their impacts. (Chapter 2.5)
Recommendations:
B.7.1. Existing knowledge of negative tipping points should serve
as enough ‘early warning’ to motivate urgent action, but could be
augmented by more formal early warning of specific Earth system
tipping points (A.4) to aid impact management. (Chapter 2.5)
B.5.4. Research funders should invest in improving assessment
of the impacts of Earth system tipping points, starting with
systematic application of existing Earth system models and
impact models to tipping point scenarios. (Chapter 2.2)
B.5.5. Research funders and knowledge institutions should
foster interdisciplinary collaboration between natural and social
scientists to improve assessment of the economic, social and
cultural impacts of tipping points. (Chapters 2.2, 2.3)
B.6. Assessment of the interactions of impact tipping points and
possible cascades can be improved. (Chapter 2.4)
B.6.1. Knowledge of negative social tipping points and their impacts
needs to be coupled to knowledge of Earth system tipping points
through the interdisciplinary consideration of potential causal chains
of propagation of systemic risk. (Chapters 2.3, 2.4)
B.6.2. Focused research is needed on the mechanisms and
consequences of tipping interactions, including identifying distinct
feedbacks fuelled by policy, economic, financial and behavioural
dynamics that can potentially lead to cascades. (Chapter 2.4)
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
B.7.2. While there is considerable room for further development (A.8)
it is timely for interdisciplinary research to consider how, where and
when early warning systems for Earth system tipping points should
be developed. (Chapter 2.5)
B.7.3. Further research is needed into early warning of negative
tipping points in socio-economic systems (B.4), particularly to
determine appropriate data sources, their relevant characteristics,
and the types of statistics that can provide robust early warning
information. (Chapter 2.5)
B.7.4. There is considerable potential for research on negative
tipping points, and early warning thereof, to contribute to wider
initiatives to accelerate systemic risk assessment. (Chapter 2.5)
Recommendation:
B.7.5. Knowledge institutions and research funders should invest
in interdisciplinary early warning systems research to identify
indicators and techniques that empower decision makers to
anticipate tipping points and take preemptive, resilience-building
actions. (Chapter 2.5)
global-tipping-points.org
C.1. Governance of Earth system tipping points is lacking.
(Chapter 3.1)
C.1.1. Governance efforts need to cover multiple domains, including
prevention and impact management, and carefully consider the
diversity of tipping processes – each tipping system requires a
distinct governance approach. (Chapter 3.1)
C.1.2. Governance of Earth system tipping points should
be polycentric and networked, crossing multiple scales and
institutions, including the scale of the tipping system. (Chapter 3.1)
C.1.3. Existing sustainability governance institutions across multiple
scales, especially those related to the international climate change
regime complex, should consider including Earth system tipping
points in their mandates and action agendas. (Chapters 3.1, 3.2,
C.1.4. Governance of Earth system tipping points should include
redundancies to avoid governance failure, and be flexible/
adaptive to enable rapid shifts in attention and resources towards
emerging problems. (Chapter 3.1)
Governance of
earth system
tipping points
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
preventive action is open now and will close at different points in
time for each tipping system – for some, potentially as early as the
2030s. (Chapter 3.2)
C.2.2. Preventing Earth system tipping requires addressing
multiple drivers of tipping at different scales, especially rapidly
strengthening current climate mitigation efforts to minimise
temperature overshoot (both peak temperature and duration).
(Chapter 3.2)
C.2.3. Speculative solar geoengineering approaches to preventing
Earth system tipping points face deep ethical, technical and
political uncertainties, and should not be considered technically
available to use safely and swiftly at present.
Recommendations:
C.24. Countries need to rapidly and dramatically reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, phasing out fossil fuels and bringing
forward their decarbonisation timelines, to minimise the risk of
crossing Earth system tipping points. (Chapter 3.2)
C.1.5. Short-term decisions have consequences on multiple time
horizons (years to millennia) that require anticipatory governance
and new risk assessment approaches for Earth system tipping
points. (Chapter 3.1)
C.2.5. This must include reducing both long-lived – especially
carbon dioxide (CO2) – and short-lived – especially methane
(CH4) – greenhouse gas emissions to limit the magnitude and
rate of warming, and to minimise peak temperature and the
duration of overshooting 1.5°C. (Chapter 3.2)
C.1.6. Actors and institutions across multiple scales and domains
(state, industry, civil society) require long-term governance
capacities, especially future thinking (anticipation/imagination),
complex-systems thinking and long-term agency. (Chapter 3.1)
C.2.6. Governments should ban commercial deployment of
solar geoengineering, declare a moratorium on any other
deployment, and develop a multilateral regime to regulate
research and experimentation. (Chapter 3.2)
Recommendation:
C.3. Managing the impacts of tipping points has diverse and
immediate governance implications.
C.1.7. Now is the time for governance actors, including UN
bodies, international organisations, national governments
and non-state actors, to engage in setting the agenda for the
governance of Earth system tipping points. (Chapter 3.1)
C.2. Preventing the passing of Earth system tipping points
should become the core goal and logic of a new and urgently
needed governance framework to address the risks they pose.
(Chapters 3.1, 3.2)
C.2.1. Given that Earth system tipping point risks are already
moderate at current levels of warming and increase substantially
above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a short window for
C.3.1. Governance of climate change adaptation needs to
significantly expand anticipatory work and adopt a multi-temporal
perspective tied to the dynamics of specific tipping systems.
(Chapter 3.3)
C.3.2. The loss and damage framework needs rapid development,
including consideration of the loss of entire biomes. (Chapter 3.3)
C.3.3. Vulnerability to tipping point impacts can be reduced by
building resilience, fostering sustainable development and just
transformations to sustainability. (Chapter 3.3)
global-tipping-points.org
C.3.4. In some locations, existing response mechanisms, including
adaptation, could be overwhelmed by the impacts of Earth system
tipping processes. Planned relocation in close collaboration
with affected communities will become increasingly necessary.
(Chapter 3.3)
C.4. There are relevant institutions and expertise that can
contribute to governance of Earth system tipping points, but
these need significant adjustments to be effective.
C.4.1. Mitigating climate tipping points should be addressed
within the Paris Agreement framework, including considering
tipping points in the interpretation of global goals and narrowing
acceptable mitigation pathways to prevent tipping (i.e. minimising
peak temperature and overshoot duration). (Chapter 3.2)
C.4.2. Carbon removal strategies need to be aligned with building
resilience to tipping points and nature-based solutions need to be
resilient to the passing of tipping points if that cannot be avoided.
(Chapter 3.2)
C.4.3. Innovation is needed to address a lack of meaningful
governance capacities at the scale of the tipping system – for
example, the tropical coral reefs or major ocean currents. (Chapters
3.1, 3.2)
Recommendations:
C.4.4. Parties to the Paris Agreement should include Earth system
tipping points in future Global Stocktake processes, assessing
collective progress towards their prevention and impact
governance. (Chapter 3.2)
C.4.5. Parties to the Paris Agreement should include a discussion
of Earth system tipping points in future revisions of their
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and mid-century
decarbonisation strategies, including an assessment of how the
country contributes to tipping point risks, how it will be affected
by their impacts, and national measures and plans to prevent
their transgression and to prepare for their impacts. (Chapter
C.4.6. Parties to the Paris Agreement should initiate an evaluation
of the adequacy of current mechanisms for addressing climate
change impacts (e.g. adaptation, loss and damage, finance) in
light of the specific risks posed by Earth system tipping points.
(Chapter 3.3)
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
C.4.7. Countries within the geographic scope of a specific Earth
system tipping element (e.g. all countries with tropical coral reefs,
Amazon rainforest, or around the North Atlantic) should consider
launching new initiatives for collective impact governance,
including the development of knowledge and early warning
systems specific to the tipping system, fostering adaptation,
addressing potential losses and damages, and mutual learning/
sharing of experience. (Chapters 3.1 and 3.3)
C.5. Improved knowledge production and science-policy
engagement processes are needed to support governance of
Earth system tipping processes.
C.5.1. Scientific knowledge, especially regarding the temporal and
spatial scales, of Earth system tipping processes must be translated
into actionable, actor-relevant understanding, across scales
and actor types, to support governance of Earth system tipping
processes. (Chapter 3.4)
C.5.2. Existing international knowledge institutions need to be
reformed to better support this kind of knowledge production.
(Chapter 3.4)
C.5.3. Learning challenges specific to tipping points are significant
and could slow down or impede effective governance and public
engagement. (Chapter 3.4)
C.5.4. Currently, knowledge gaps are biggest in the social sciences
and humanities. (Chapter 3.4)
C.5.5. Novel knowledge co-production processes that can engage
scientists, policymakers and stakeholders in systems and future
thinking are needed to foster anticipatory capacities. (Chapter 3.4)
Recommendations:
C.5.6. International organisations, national governments and
science funders should foster urgent international research
collaboration, especially in the social sciences and humanities,
by promoting open, transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary,
solutions-oriented, networked knowledge systems focusing on
Earth system tipping points.
C.5.7. Regional and national science and knowledge institutions
(e.g. national academies of science, EU foresight initiatives) and
boundary organisations should foster anticipatory capacity
building with participatory co-production processes involving
policy-makers, scientists, other knowledge holders, artists, and
designers.
global-tipping-points.org
D.1. Positive tipping points offer the prospect that coordinated,
strategic interventions can lead to disproportionately large
and rapid beneficial results that mitigate existential climate
risk and help redirect humanity along more sustainable
pathways.
D.1.1. We are now so close to Earth system tipping points that
positive tipping points to accelerate social change are the only
realistic systemic risk governance option. (Chapter 4.2)
D.1.2. Positive tipping points don’t just happen, they need
to be actively enabled. Most positive tipping points require
interventions – technological innovation, political and social
action, behaviour/norm change, and financial investment – that
create the enabling conditions and alter the balance of feedback
for tipping to occur. (Chapter 4.2)
D.1.3. Changemakers could benefit from more diverse
perspectives to open up the solution space, leveraging a shift
in worldviews as well as reconfiguring systems, technologies,
markets and materials. (Chapters 4.2, 4.3. 4.4, 4.6)
Recommendation:
D.1.4. Science funders and knowledge institutions
should urgently foster a comprehensive, systematic and
transdisciplinary programme of research and development
of positive tipping points concepts, theory, methods and
applications.
D.2. Positive tipping points provide new opportunities and
challenges for decision makers. (Chapter 4.2)
D.2.1. Human systems are complex. Decision makers need
reliable information and frameworks to assess the effects,
opportunities and risks of interventions. (Chapter 4.2)
Positive tipping
points in technology,
economy and society
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
D.2.2. An avoid-shift-improve logic can be used in many sectors
to decide which form of intervention is most effective. (Chapter
D.2.3. High-emitting sectors need coordinated supply-side and
demand-side approaches. There are key feedbacks between
them that can lead to positive tipping points. (Chapter 4.3)
D.2.4. Small-group coalitions of state and non-state actors (e.g.
cities) may be more effective in accelerating ambitious climate
leadership than larger groups. (Chapter 4.4)
D.2.5. Rapid systemic change usually creates losers as well as
winners. The required scale and speed of change will only be
possible with sufficient public consent. (Chapter 4.6)
D.2.6. The public must be involved in relevant decision making
and equipped with a clear understanding of the enormous
opportunities (lives saved, improved health/wellbeing, better
jobs, clean and cheap energy) as well as the risks of rapid
Recommendations:
D.2.7. National and regional policymakers need a systemsthinking approach and coordinated strategies across all
sectors, departments and levels of government. Both supplyside and demand-side interventions are needed to maximise
the potential of positive tipping points. (Chapters 4.2 and 4.3)
D.2.8. Countries and relevant non-state actors should form
small-group coalitions (climate clubs) of shared interests
that can enable positive tipping points. For example, a global
tipping point for electric vehicles could be brought forward if
China, EU and US introduce future bans on the sale of internal
D.2.9. Governments, cooperating with relevant industries and
trade unions, must ensure that those who might otherwise be
losers from positive tipping points – e.g. livestock farmers,
workers in fossil-fuel industries, or exploited workers mining
rare-earth metals for the new economy – are given the
support needed for a just transition. (Chapter 4.6)
D.3. Positive tipping points are starting to occur in energy
systems and can be brought forward by demand-side
D.3.1. The power sector in many countries recently passed a
tipping point of cost parity for renewable power generation.
Declining prices of renewable electricity below cost parity with
fossil-fuelled power generation further reinforce exponential
growth. Over 80% of new electricity generation in 2022 was solar
D 3.2. Affordable renewable electricity supply is driving tipping
points across systems and technologies such as EVs and heat
global-tipping-points.org
TIPPING
SAFE AND
JUST WORLD
SUSTAINABILITY LEVEL OF SYSTEM
Recommendations:
D.3.4. Investors, policymakers and technology providers
need to focus on clean energy technology development, the
achievement of cost parity with ‘sunset’ technologies, and
exponential diffusion worldwide, especially in emerging
SHALLOWER
OUTCOMES
D.3.5. Policymakers need to introduce strong regulations, such
as minimum efficiency levels for buildings and appliances, that
D.3.6. Policy to support both supply-side and demand-side
reductions should be designed to support sustainable and
UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES
ENABLING
ACCELERATING
STABILISING
Agents intervene by:
INTERVENTIONS
AGENTS
Creating the enabling conditions
Increasing the reinforcing feedbacks, or reducing
the dampening feedbacks
Attempting to trigger a tipping point
Figure 3. Visual summary of the concept of positive tipping points. The current state of the target system is unsustainable. The desired
outcome is consistent with a safe and just world. The process of positive tipping typically entails three different phases of enabling,
accelerating and stabilising. To encourage the desired outcome, agents can strategically intervene to leverage change during the
enabling phase in three ways, by: 1) Creating the enabling conditions; 2) Increasing the amplifying feedbacks that increase instability/
decreasing the dampening feedbacks that maintain stability; or 3) Attempting to trigger the positive tipping point. Once the tipping
point has been crossed, the system enters an accelerating phase of nonlinear change dominated by amplifying feedbacks, then
stabilises again in a qualitatively different state. The primary characteristic of a tipping point is a shift in the balance of feedbacks:
at point F1, prior to the tipping point, dampening feedbacks are dominant and system stability is maintained; at point F2, beyond the
tipping point, amplifying feedbacks are temporarily dominant and change accelerates exponentially. Other outcomes are also possible,
including ‘shallower’, less sustainable outcomes, and unintended consequences.
D.3.3. Reducing energy demand by avoiding energy-intensive
activities, shifting to less energy-intensive activities and
improving energy service efficiency can accelerate decarbonising
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
D.4. Positive tipping points are starting to occur in electric
vehicle markets which need to be complemented by systemic
D.4.1. Electric vehicles show evidence of passing or approaching
tipping points in major markets including China and Europe.
D.5. Positive tipping points have yet to occur at scale in food
systems, but there are a range of interventions that can create
D.5.1. Shifting to more plant-based diets, avoiding food loss and
waste, and improving farming practice have synergistic benefits
for meeting the Paris targets, biodiversity protection goals and
D.5.2. Potential positive tipping points can be enabled in
the uptake of alternatives to livestock products, spread of
sustainable agriculture, and green ammonia production for
Recommendations:
D.5.3. Policymakers should focus on designing and sequencing
policies strategically to incentivise production shifts away
from livestock. Adaptive and deliberative governance can help
ensure positive outcomes for potential ‘losers’ (e.g. livestock
D.5.4. Policymakers should enable diversified income
opportunities for farmers, to make agroecological or
sustainable landuse practices economically attractive (e.g.
D.4.2. There is an urgent need for tipping points in transport
demand as freight and personal transport continue to increase
D.5.5. New emission-pricing (e.g. for methane and nitrogen),
especially focused on large producers, could generate
revenues to support most affected regions and low-income
groups, foster innovation (e.g. via reducing VAT rates on
plant-based food), and create additional income sources for
D.4.3. There are encouraging localised examples of tipping
points in urban mobility, with a decrease in individual motorised
transport and a shift to more active transport modes which can
D.5.6. Policymakers, retailers and public cafeterias should
use nudging and public procurement of more plant-based
and sustainable food to accelerate the adoption of new
Recommendations:
D.5.7. Policymakers, investors, NGOs and food retailers should
support innovation, health and sustainability transparency
criteria, accessibility, and certification to facilitate market
penetration of sustainable and healthy alternative proteins.
D.4.4. Policymakers need to prioritise integrated planning
to enable tipping in transport, foremost regional planning
for public transport and active travel infrastructure to avoid
D.4.5. Policymakers need to steer the transition of the
transport sector with tools such as zero emission vehicle
mandates, which can induce EV tipping points across markets.
D.6. Social behaviour and politics can enable positive tipping
in other key systems and can themselves be viewed as systems
with tipping points. (Chapter 4.4)
global-tipping-points.org
D.6.1. Changes in social-behavioural systems often precede and
fuel wider changes and can exhibit tipping dynamics through
social contagion processes. (Chapter 4.4)
D.6.2. Elements of civil society, including social movements,
tend to be at the vanguard of radical social change. However, to
successfully disrupt and replace an incumbent regime, they also
need to cultivate a broad coalition of public, business and political
support. (Chapter 4.4)
D.6.3. ‘Free social spaces’ are places where social movements and
other alternative communities of practice can gestate, experiment
and build their networks, partly protected from more powerful
D.6.4. New social norms that could help transform society include
anti-fossil fuel norms and sufficiency norms. However, replacing
deeply entrenched norms around consumerism in favour of
Recommendations:
D.6.5. Governments should pursue policies such as fossil-fuel
phase-out and post-carbon infrastructure investment in ways
that make the desired behaviours the most affordable and
D.6.6. Policymakers should design policies to create increasing
returns for shifts towards sustainable behaviours, compensate
for losses, and ensure the autonomy and capacity of key actors.
D.7. The financial system can play a key role in enabling positive
D.7.1. Policy interventions can enable transformative shifts
within and beyond the financial sector, capitalising on nonlinear
D.7.2. Public finance can mitigate market uncertainty and
encourage private investment, helping to trigger positive tipping
points (e.g. in offshore wind). Premature withdrawal of public
finance (e.g. subsidies) can delay or jeopardise positive tipping
D.7.3. Promoting alignment of investors’ expectations regarding
the timing and pace of the transition can help to scale sustainable
UNI V E RS I TY O F E XETE R G LO BAL TIPPING PO INTS REPORT
D.7.4. Policy mixes that combine command-and-control and marketbased instruments can initiate virtuous cycles, driving technological
development and reducing the overall need for public investment.
D.9.2. These generic indicators could provide early indication of
opportunities for interventions to accelerate positive tipping points
in other sectors and could be used to assess the impact of previous
Recommendations:
Recommendation:
D.7.5. Governments and development finance institutions need
to provide support to overcome climate investment traps in
developing countries by reducing capital costs and establishing an
D.9.3. Research funders and investors should support efforts to
develop early opportunity indicators of positive tipping points
in other systems, including indicators that capture more than
one domain of systemic change (e.g. market data and public
D.7.6. Governments and financial regulators should provide
prudential regulation and financial supervision tools to facilitate a
managed decline in fossil fuel lending, together with coordinated
transition plans to enhance their collective impact on debt markets
D.8. Digital technologies can be key enablers of positive tipping
across sectors if appropriately governed and supported. (Chapter
D.8.1. Digital technologies are already enabling positive tipping points
in renewable electricity and light road transport and will likely do so in
D.8.2. The potential of digitalisation as an enabler of positive tipping
points can be best realised in a public policy framework that prohibits
or limits environmental degradation while promoting the purposeful
use of digital technologies towards climate mitigation and sustainable
Recommendations:
D.8.3. Governments need to implement regulations to ensure the
benefits of digitalisation are universal and not limited to specific
D.8.4. Public sector actors need to invest in capacity building and
the granting of access to appropriate digital hardware, software
D.9. ‘Early opportunity indicators’ of positive tipping points
could be used to maximise the leveraging effect of targeted
D.9.1. ‘Early opportunity indicators’ of approaching tipping points in
electric vehicle markets have been detected in country-level data.
D.10. ‘Super-leverage points’ can be identified with the potential
to trigger positive tipping cascades. (Chapter 4.5)
D.10.1. Cascading effects involve multiple systems, for example
when one sector drives down the cost of a shared technology or
when the output from one sector provides a low-cost input to
another.
Recommendations:
D.11.3. All sectors of society should increase pressure on
governments to provide the resources and regulations
needed for a just and equitable transition to a sustainable
future. Consistency is key: conflicting standards and policy
backtracking delay progress and investment. (Chapter 4.6)
D.11.4. All commentators, particularly media organisations,
need to be aware of the politics of language and power
dynamics in framing their content and key messages. (Chapter
D.11.5. Researchers and practitioners need to engage with
diversity and employ inclusive approaches from the earliest
stages of project design. (Chapter 4.6)
D.11.6. Public engagement and education on the opportunities,
risks and ethical complexities of a just transition must be at the
heart of an international climate action plan. (Chapter 4.6)
D.10.2. Cascading effects can also occur within and between
social, political and financial systems, potentially leading to rapid
changes in social norms, values and policies. (Chapter 4.5)
Recommendation:
D.10.3. Government, business, finance and research sectors
need to develop a coordinated, international, systems-thinking
approach to super-leverage points and tipping cascades.
For example, mandates for green ammonia for fertiliser
manufacturing could trigger a tipping point in demand for
hydrogen electrolysers, reducing the cost of green hydrogen
and increasing the viability of green hydrogen-based solutions
in other sectors, including steel and shipping. (Chapter 4.5)
D.11. The prevention of Earth system tipping points and the
promotion of positive tipping points must ensure just and
equitable outcomes. (Chapter 4.6)
D.11.1. Considerations of what needs to change, who is being asked
to change, where the change and its impacts will be felt, and by
whom, require reflexivity, inclusiveness and cooperation between
all actors in all branches of society. (Chapter 4.6)
D.11.2. Supportive and inclusive financial investment is needed for
equitable interventions. (Chapter 4.6)
global-tipping-points.org