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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
16 September 2024
IAEA Outlook for Nuclear Power Increases for Fourth Straight Year, Adding to Global Momentum for Nuclear Expansion
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revised up its annual projections for the expansion of nuclear power for a fourth successive year. World nuclear capacity is now projected to increase by 2.5 times the current capacity by 2050, in the IAEA’s high case scenario, including a significant contribution from small modular reactors (SMRs).
At the end of 2023, 413 nuclear power reactors were operational, with a global capacity of 371.5 GW(e). In the high case scenario of the new IAEA outlook, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 950 gigawatts by 2050. In this case, global capacity in 2050 would be slightly more than 2.5 times what it was in 2023. In the low case projection, capacity rises 40 per cent to 514 gigawatts. Small modular reactors, or SMRs, account for about one quarter of the capacity added in the high case and for 6 per cent in the low case scenario. 
All operating reactors, potential lifetime extensions, possible power uprates, planned shutdowns and expected construction projects in the next few decades were considered in the estimates. Around 30 newcomer countries are either considering or moving forward with plans to introduce nuclear power into their energy mix, while other countries are expanding and extending the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants. One of the most cost-effective sources of low emission electricity is the lifetime extension of existing nuclear reactors, the publication states. In the high case scenario, it is assumed that the operating lifetimes of most nuclear power reactors scheduled for retirement will be extended. 
Enabling factors
Along the same lines, the new publication states that achieving the high case scenario for nuclear capacity will depend on enabling factors: national policies, supporting investment, demonstration projects for new reactors, investment in grids, supply chain management, work force development, and regulatory collaboration and global harmonization – particularly for SMRs. 
Background 
Since it was first published over 40 years ago, the IAEA’s projections have been continually refined to reflect an evolving global energy context. Over the past decade, nuclear power development has remained within the range of projections described in prior editions.
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About the IAEA
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) serves as the world’s foremost intergovernmental forum for scientific and technical co-operation in the peaceful use of nuclear technology. Established as an autonomous organization under the United Nations (UN) in 1957, the IAEA carries out programmes to maximize the useful contribution of nuclear technology to society while verifying its peaceful use.
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