Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, Carlos A. Ramírez, and Thiago R.T. FerreiraWe develop a market-based measure of firms' and industries' exposure to foreign trade disruptions. Combining this approach with detailed supervisory data, we quantify large U.S. banks' exposure to such disruptions and propose a novel bank-level vulnerability index. We show that banks with greater exposure experienced significantly larger stock price declines following the April 2025 tariff announcements. Our vulnerability index explains 18% of the cross-sectional variation in bank returns during this episode.(AGENPARL)

Dario Caldara, Mike McHenry, Matteo Iacoviello, and Immo SchottWe study the investment effects of the Russia–Ukraine war using a novel, text-based measure of firm-level exposure derived from earnings call transcripts. Combining this measure with financial statement data for over 6,500 firms across 50 countries, we show that exposure to the conflict led to sizable and persistent declines in corporate investment. Firms that discussed the war in early 2022 invested significantly less than otherwise similar firms. The results hold across multiple empirical strategies and highlight the role of geopolitical risk in shaping firm behavior during global crises.(AGENPARL)

Dario Caldara, Mike McHenry, Matteo Iacoviello, and Immo SchottWe study the investment effects of the Russia–Ukraine war using a novel, text-based measure of firm-level exposure derived from earnings call transcripts. Combining this measure with financial statement data for over 6,500 firms across 50 countries, we show that exposure to the conflict led to sizable and persistent declines in corporate investment. Firms that discussed the war in early 2022 invested significantly less than otherwise similar firms. The results hold across multiple empirical strategies and highlight the role of geopolitical risk in shaping firm behavior during global crises.(AGENPARL)

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and Matteo IacovielloWe construct a news-based index of deregulation for the United States from 1960 through 2025 using AI to semantically classify newspaper articles. We distinguish articles discussing deregulation from those discussing increased regulation, assigning intensity scores that reflect both the centrality of deregulatory content and whether articles discuss advocacy, proposals, or enacted measures. Human validation confirms strong agreement between AI and human classifications. The deregulation index captures major reform episodes including transportation and telecommunications liberalization in the 1970s–1980s, financial deregulation in the 1980s-1990s, and recent deregulatory activity. We decompose the index by sector, type of deregulation, and…

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and Matteo IacovielloWe construct a news-based index of deregulation for the United States from 1960 through 2025 using AI to semantically classify newspaper articles. We distinguish articles discussing deregulation from those discussing increased regulation, assigning intensity scores that reflect both the centrality of deregulatory content and whether articles discuss advocacy, proposals, or enacted measures. Human validation confirms strong agreement between AI and human classifications. The deregulation index captures major reform episodes including transportation and telecommunications liberalization in the 1970s–1980s, financial deregulation in the 1980s-1990s, and recent deregulatory activity. We decompose the index by sector, type of deregulation, and…

Edward NelsonCentral bank independence is a major area of study, but the economic literature has been characterized by numerous misstatements regarding how U.S. monetary policy independence has operated over time. Against this backdrop, this paper lays out major elements of the practice of central bank independence in the United States in the period from 1951 to 2006—a time span that encompasses the William McChesney Martin, Jr., through Alan Greenspan tenures as the head of the Federal Reserve. Many documentary materials and policymaker quotations not considered in previous research on U.S. monetary policy are highlighted. The analysis covers both institutional aspects…

Edward NelsonCentral bank independence is a major area of study, but the economic literature has been characterized by numerous misstatements regarding how U.S. monetary policy independence has operated over time. Against this backdrop, this paper lays out major elements of the practice of central bank independence in the United States in the period from 1951 to 2006—a time span that encompasses the William McChesney Martin, Jr., through Alan Greenspan tenures as the head of the Federal Reserve. Many documentary materials and policymaker quotations not considered in previous research on U.S. monetary policy are highlighted. The analysis covers both institutional aspects…

David Splinter and Jeff LarrimoreCirculation into and out of the top one percent is pronounced in the U.S. One third exit after a year and two-thirds exit after a decade. This mobility lowers top income shares when shifting from annual to multi-year income measures. Intragenerational mobility over two decades lowers recent top one percent fiscal income shares by over 10 percent. Two-decade mobility reduces top 0.1% shares by over 20 percent, top 0.01% shares by 30 percent, and top 0.001% shares by 40 percent. Effects of variability on wealth inequality are similar in magnitude, although more modest as a share…

David Splinter and Jeff LarrimoreCirculation into and out of the top one percent is pronounced in the U.S. One third exit after a year and two-thirds exit after a decade. This mobility lowers top income shares when shifting from annual to multi-year income measures. Intragenerational mobility over two decades lowers recent top one percent fiscal income shares by over 10 percent. Two-decade mobility reduces top 0.1% shares by over 20 percent, top 0.01% shares by 30 percent, and top 0.001% shares by 40 percent. Effects of variability on wealth inequality are similar in magnitude, although more modest as a share…

Dopo aver meravigliato in pista, lo short track azzurro brilla anche sul palco degli ISU Speed Skating Awards, per la prima edizione dei premi della International Skating Union dedicati ai migliori pattinatori del pianetà per il settore velocità. A prendersi la copertina per il movimento tricolore è stato Thomas Nadalini. Il ventitrenne trentino delle Fiamme Oro, che ha conquistato sul ghiaccio dell’iconica Maurice Richard Arena di Montreal lo scorso weekend la medaglia d’argento nei 1.500 metri nonché l’oro con la staffetta mista, è stato infatti protagonista anche alla serata di gala dell’ISU, insignito del premio di “Most Improved Skater” dell’anno.…