Sergio VillalvazoThis paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises-i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices. Second, a dampening effect by which wealthy households with low leverage buy depressed assets, relieving downward pressure on asset prices. As a result, the role of inequality during crises is ambiguous. We conduct a quantitative analysis using…

Mauro Caselli, Arpita Chatterjee, and Shengyu LiThis paper introduces a method for estimating productivity and quality at the firm-product level using a transformation function framework. We use firm optimization conditions to establish a one-to-one mapping between observed data and unobserved productivity and quality. We do not need to impute firm-product input shares and can avoid imposing productivity evolution processes. The method is scalable to numerous products and can address the bias caused by unobserved heterogeneous intermediate input prices. We apply the method to a set of Mexican manufacturing industries and examine the roles of across-firm and within-firm technological spillovers, accounting…

Mauro Caselli, Arpita Chatterjee, and Shengyu LiThis paper introduces a method for estimating productivity and quality at the firm-product level using a transformation function framework. We use firm optimization conditions to establish a one-to-one mapping between observed data and unobserved productivity and quality. We do not need to impute firm-product input shares and can avoid imposing productivity evolution processes. The method is scalable to numerous products and can address the bias caused by unobserved heterogeneous intermediate input prices. We apply the method to a set of Mexican manufacturing industries and examine the roles of across-firm and within-firm technological spillovers, accounting…

Justin R. Pierce, Peter K. Schott, and Cristina J. Tello-TrilloWe find that US workers outside manufacturing exhibit relative earnings increases after US trade liberalization with China. These relative gains cumulate over time as the beneficial effect of a worker’s upstream exposure—increased competition from China in input markets—more than offsets the detrimental impact of her own and downstream (customer) exposures. These relative gains are smaller for non-manufacturing workers with less ex ante firm tenure and lower initial earnings, and are absent among manufacturing workers due to a lack of upstream gains and stronger downstream losses.(AGENPARL)

Justin R. Pierce, Peter K. Schott, and Cristina J. Tello-TrilloWe find that US workers outside manufacturing exhibit relative earnings increases after US trade liberalization with China. These relative gains cumulate over time as the beneficial effect of a worker’s upstream exposure—increased competition from China in input markets—more than offsets the detrimental impact of her own and downstream (customer) exposures. These relative gains are smaller for non-manufacturing workers with less ex ante firm tenure and lower initial earnings, and are absent among manufacturing workers due to a lack of upstream gains and stronger downstream losses.(AGENPARL)

Matthew Maury, Michael Suher, and Jeffery Y. ZhangDoes fair lending litigation impact mortgage lender decisions? Using a novel dataset of all fair lending legal actions from 1991 to 2023, we find that it does. In the wake of legal settlements for discrimination against Black borrowers, lenders significantly reduced denial rates for Black applicants. The reductions offset pre-litigation racial disparities in denial rates by litigated banks, relative to those banks' competitors. Origination rates for Black applicants also increased post-litigation. We further observe evidence of a spillover effect on the approval decisions of non-litigated banks operating in the same city as a…

Matthew Maury, Michael Suher, and Jeffery Y. ZhangDoes fair lending litigation impact mortgage lender decisions? Using a novel dataset of all fair lending legal actions from 1991 to 2023, we find that it does. In the wake of legal settlements for discrimination against Black borrowers, lenders significantly reduced denial rates for Black applicants. The reductions offset pre-litigation racial disparities in denial rates by litigated banks, relative to those banks' competitors. Origination rates for Black applicants also increased post-litigation. We further observe evidence of a spillover effect on the approval decisions of non-litigated banks operating in the same city as a…

Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, Carlos A. Ramírez, and Thiago R.T. FerreiraWe develop a market-based measure of firms' and industries' exposure to foreign trade disruptions. Combining this approach with detailed supervisory data, we quantify large U.S. banks' exposure to such disruptions and propose a novel bank-level vulnerability index. We show that banks with greater exposure experienced significantly larger stock price declines following the April 2025 tariff announcements. Our vulnerability index explains 18% of the cross-sectional variation in bank returns during this episode.(AGENPARL)

Michele Modugno, Dino Palazzo, Carlos A. Ramírez, and Thiago R.T. FerreiraWe develop a market-based measure of firms' and industries' exposure to foreign trade disruptions. Combining this approach with detailed supervisory data, we quantify large U.S. banks' exposure to such disruptions and propose a novel bank-level vulnerability index. We show that banks with greater exposure experienced significantly larger stock price declines following the April 2025 tariff announcements. Our vulnerability index explains 18% of the cross-sectional variation in bank returns during this episode.(AGENPARL)

Rhys Bidder, Nicolas Crouzet, Margaret M. Jacobson, and Michael SiemerHow flexible are corporate loans after origination? Theory predicts coordination problems should make syndicated loans harder to modify than single-bank loans. We show the opposite. Using comprehensive regulatory data, we document that syndicated loans are modified frequently and respond to borrower distress, while single-lender loans are half as likely to be modified. This gap is not explained by covenants or performance pricing. Instead, syndicated loans are monitored more intensively. We show theoretically and empirically how fixed monitoring costs generate scale economies: larger loans justify continuous monitoring enabling flexible renegotiation, while smaller borrowers…