(AGENPARL) – ven 07 aprile 2023 Berkeley Lab’s expertise in environmental and economic modeling strengthens development of emerging energy technologies and climate change mitigation strategies.
https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c37GBagAwpOVxPcouY74bMvmvaxmzzDTp7be-tK3ATZgVQyBW730dVHllZwStdSC8XSzD5caVzKt1L1mh8i1negxDwzhd_JQTvw==&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==
[How Technoeconomic Analyses Pave the Way to a Low-Carbon Future](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUDxtkIuVTIjw11_pPdVAJNFRkPfv7U9e8ZqyGPUOqKZ1EVVR7igYpuk6sGOvGqZSfhQ7Hcum-9EHYPCt_HzdbMHeANLQCbRff3J6d4aBtLrRaO8OFLVn7Li7NkV7qaC8Wje6VbS58PnnMW-kl4PMtjMAMvMw1loznID_f9TfztrIEXVgMfLWraCn088cguJXg&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==)
Berkeley Lab’s expertise in environmental and economic modeling strengthens development of emerging energy technologies and climate change mitigation strategies
https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUDxtkIuVTIjw11_pPdVAJNFRkPfv7U9e8ZqyGPUOqKZ1EVVR7igYpuk6sGOvGqZSfhQ7Hcum-9EHYPCt_HzdbMHeANLQCbRff3J6d4aBtLrRaO8OFLVn7Li7NkV7qaC8Wje6VbS58PnnMW-kl4PMtjMAMvMw1loznID_f9TfztrIEXVgMfLWraCn088cguJXg&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==
(Credit: metamorworks/Shutterstock)
Levels of planet-warming carbon dioxide in the air continue to rise. Cutting emissions by moving away from fossil fuels is a priority – but so is removing carbon that’s already been emitted. Of the many emerging technologies on the table, which ones will be most effective, and where? What about costs? What kinds of investments will have the most impact?
Scientists at the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) are answering these kinds of questions with technoeconomic analysis, a data-driven way to predict the best routes to decarbonization.
“Berkeley Lab is building many clean energy technologies that could have an enormous impact on our path to a low carbon future. Technoeconomic analysis helps us to focus our research on those technologies that are most likely to be developed into successful and affordable products,” said Berkeley Lab Director Mike Witherell.
A Bridge From Innovation to Mature Technology
Technoeconomic analysis uses computer models to evaluate the cost implications and potential environmental impacts of emerging technologies. These models can build on initial research results for a technology and calculate the costs of scaling it up. This type of predictive analysis can be used to support decision-making by researchers, industry stakeholders, regulators, and policy-makers.
A combination of robust computing power and more sophisticated techniques have made technoeconomic analysis an increasingly powerful approach. Accordingly, Berkeley Lab’s team, centered in the Lab’s [Energy Technologies Area](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32Rxnw2bTUi0UGPVqvEBQHxwt5V4O2fKDzMr2ZwCvfGFCMc-EzNVy-XuVAL1ca7zXif3qfJfYiy9GT0zeGZjXLU=&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) with staff across the [Earth & Environmental Sciences](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c33df6eZwLOsxpjo8qwULQn3FUdSJ4AH6kZ1ISppfBFIXZK1TSr3hJUH4nvhEzFf9Os-zvNlVygiqZyA9xlS-_gI=&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) and [Biosciences](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c35uTlyvVN_FbNCqTJ4FgsxwCaGhHHvOCm18KhT_xG_gRPGuCS4_XRpVLkjf53pmhJvNvzIgqUI-LcW91FwQKKsAIsiz8Y5eajg==&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) Areas, has expanded to include 20 scientists from a broad range of disciplines who work in partnership with teams across Berkeley Lab and with other institutions. [The research](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUPf09WZNP6LbaSVvoojP-Y6rqYsbpQVLSFnFvrh0wKwMmu0u8YBztobHc8nNh2j0Q0XtSQk1t_bbdRxunybROz-he8PiOKZMnYTLzswFExrZ91wnCIfe-F8A1aZljoBADpUQuZR_26tI=&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) often requires a blend of engineering design, process design and simulation, cash flow analysis, life-cycle assessment, and geospatial analysis.
“With a novel technology, we can’t just take an analogy for an industry and guess at how it performs. We really need to be building brand new engineered systems and the process models around them,” said [Hanna Breunig](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c3x0TlJVkSpG9c-Pd8PqHe8f4Sf32ByOrdbwvUGO2Wsa58l3Y2IfJxMjyDJxg-hqvr0Pt2AbDX3p_s2We9d1pSqhremBxDILu1DnoNaYx2SAr7I75H0NaWhM=&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==), Berkeley Lab research scientist. “This requires team science and new computational approaches to start predicting performance.”
Whereas earlier technoeconomic analysis projects generally relied on existing software with limited inputs and outputs, today Berkeley Lab researchers are creating tailored, multilayered computer models to get a more complete picture of a technology. Even more importantly, the team has been bolstering these models with data from early-stage research at the Lab. This creates a feedback loop where the data strengthens the models, and vice versa.
Berkeley Lab’s history of technoeconomic analysis over the past two decades is now proving useful in a variety of key climate change mitigation strategies. This includes [negative emissions technologies](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c35PF2gLjYj5jcAPGtV-IPLrFAAe12fTb2DmEqFHKI0S26hXXf0uhWEJZepjR2gY1jsCOpgqmV8N15q4cNYevOVTULDGYNDA-FRadv9J7jUfa&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) such as direct air capture and enhanced weathering, a process that speeds up chemical reactions that remove carbon naturally. It also includes decarbonizing manufacturing; biofuels and bioproducts; hydrogen production and storage; and methods to support a circular economy where more materials can be recycled, avoiding the need to make new ones.
“When technologies are so nascent and they are being commercialized rapidly, we are getting data from all directions,” said [Corinne Scown](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c39F_kWcV_lZm94R3R7a9DZY67mocC5s4oxaqONIhIKruKDkXXe1EIy_j1EL1GO7zg5YrgbAckFutpHbtYTg4OqsisAO_jhiPWmFmZnUmaTQxyzE3_jL0JlQ=&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==), a Berkeley Lab staff scientist. “So we have to get a handle on what the major drivers are for costs, energy balances, and emissions really quickly. That requires the kind of technological expertise and abilities that we’ve been building.”
https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUDxtkIuVTIjw11_pPdVAJNFRkPfv7U9e8ZqyGPUOqKZ1EVVR7igYpuk6sGOvGqZSfhQ7Hcum-9EHYPCt_HzdbMHeANLQCbRff3J6d4aBtLrRaO8OFLVn7Li7NkV7qaC8Wje6VbS58PnnMW-kl4PMtjMAMvMw1loznID_f9TfztrIEXVgMfLWraCn088cguJXg&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==
(Left to Right) Corinne Scown, Peng Peng, and Hanna Breunig. (Credit: Thor Swift/Berkeley Lab)
High-Temperature Thermal Energy Storage
In [a recent study](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUNqTyjTHeM5LXiw7XwX0QH2RIoPdMSty2jZmCbdrh8d4DYHHzhFXOtDdPlg18hsiTqopKRGDfmE18eFJwncsdCtWDXrXMlG7jqOz-rS4_VwqZDo2WpT02F7qgrnzjrHDrrHkxWy4JP50eo7bMunZ8eADzdtSvoGWX&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==), Breunig and colleagues presented a concept for a high-temperature thermal energy storage system that could bank large amounts of energy for periods of weeks to months. Breunig and study co-author [Sean Lubner](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAU3mPyzIlUPlSuf0I0ZcY66zVlPje2ezXTu2dwwBZg2QGxqEzpa_owTK-3lUX-KkHWStOWWVG4Cb4GHbzz5Do05AJOJx8nX4Q3mq0jQ9XzQMc=&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==), a Berkeley Lab affiliate, hypothesized that new composite materials could be engineered to meet the needs of such a system. The systems analysis was used to reverse-engineer targets for key material parameters such as electrical conductivity, material price, and durability from a system’s levelized cost target. The result was both a patent on the integrated system and candidate materials, and a prototype based on the most promising material.
Infinitely Recyclable Plastics
Other recent technoeconomic analysis work has focused on [an infinitely recyclable plastic](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c3_r_m_OMhXoLdEV6ZwrICX0VbiUb-97zlSoZo08_H5Hghs1VcDNQfoEpxlCKJg9-Y7ZKt16GGNaboKBg8rg4wq2JoR7wzUpzjhqj7VrFGMWWS9oJ38ythDNxpQ2C91h26ZEu5_dxCqie65nyRvfFKNAak357_UEebw==&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) called poly(diketoenamine), or PDK. The material [was invented at Berkeley Lab](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c310CJkk-joQm1OLU_4kCsEQaFC9ExbpFJOd-7675hcUSHY0gpc0SaN29MzW2VWKLVQJL8rUFvvuMMv6wPRJffH6-ucIwP7RRRtwcHHA-AYg5ah3dIi7todIll7UBOqorJIl7lvZdv-mU8M7NohnYR2H7CNaNRzaanqF29NCFSI-y&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) a few years ago. Now researchers including Baishakhi Bose, a postdoctoral scholar at Berkeley Lab, are [conducting analyses](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUq6aOGeZYpOj4TnZmzVpobRoOUfVM7ZDIjhvG1ok0bt26UfV4NjqMKu71nXPyXivxFGBSEy_Cm-7etpLFGpxCDE4uGiHLlOgrTetyoNteraDR5fPFCm4QI5a-oxkzLhtn5DYzBQu3mEkWyYIncbTt3TfDzoJ6WLYG&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) to zero in on the most cost-effective versions of the material, as well as where the material might work best (mattresses and automotive parts are two candidates).
“With technoeconomic analysis, we can generate scenarios that can help us determine whether PDK compounds being explored in the lab would be cost-competitive with plastic compounds currently in the market,” Bose said. “The technoeconomic analysis studies are also helping us understand which stages of the PDK production process need improvement.”
Removing Carbon from the Air
Breunig and colleagues in the Earth & Environmental Sciences Area [are developing best practice guidance for a technique](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUlyoY9X-ekZ2XyanCyE32M_zcM7QXqLxta3VxppjKRu7AqLS3nS1rAIIfrPw72MG-rvnvgHWOTzeaWCCWtTHQwpv_RrER402_HDPRtrl80UJSnrEXE-7749dvs8Is3WOSxQildqSHAvNN49FTN4b9Rfwy5rA5zl9L&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==) called enhanced weathering, where pulverized rocks are added to soil, to maximize carbon removal and potentially improve soil quality and boost crop yields.
Researchers at Berkeley Lab, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and several other labs and universities are collaborating on a forthcoming report, Roads to Removal, that will evaluate the prospects for both engineered and nature-based methods to take carbon dioxide out of the air. Given that concentrations of carbon dioxide [have risen 50% in less than 200 years](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=0018S7J43F40E0wgjbWTaGnML71s0CaXMoYzAvduWCdEoURENlV1U2c32faNgMsiJAUG9_z1vVJkZWu42j6ViQoL0CxHAEroDfN9jh9zWc7L4h_QBvG2cWltd51V3fWH9GvIBtpATgafSaf9t0j-qr7L12mJ9nUgIL5TI9i8-P4uddw2HiVZ3np-n9ODLTRdUds&c=wMT6FF4OnUXUNqLQnB0KqU3wTv-6qDmQOBInfPH659n4viDLJWDFQg==&ch=r4nXExa718jHzJu3oDoDNvrxdSnLLtr2bzTlCAq7a_7OZp6KvtDpiw==), the world needs viable removal options such as direct air capture, biomass carbon removal and storage (BiRCS), and improved forest and cropland management practices.
“The report has the potential to be really impactful, not just because of our ability to say how much carbon we think we could remove up to 2050, but also where infrastructure investments like carbon dioxide pipelines will be most needed,” Scown said.
Hydrogen Production & Storage