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For immediate release
[Will MAGA turmoil get worse in the next two years? Probably, scholars say](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6gTQXqoFtB58fI1KeAEfz1w38gIA-2FbaLBLHim4sA4dPclWH6YtbJWHXuPXt4xtRs3KN6wZBw8SCNyyM9UElnS8UioW9X3ILEMRH1-2Bjsd0ecLMuRTtfxSMFMnK-2FzSSZpodYvBpPbs1ce1nLFkmYksCnw-3DWOo7_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewRUrIOldhUiFMbmKNFTKLiDndyOhocEu6s9-2FUc39Vh3NIcDsVB2z9f7FDVFFEKgN6c7P5-2BN9o7-2FDrbQW-2FWJ8wy6RyBB3je-2FIdHqm58sAiBL8TjTEi5sIZpifjPHT7PWHIvx8-2FnGdI49Xjxzt19JWLgSVlWZiyRxw1FgKxT17bSTnxzvKcrj46n-2BTNPF-2Fi3uuDg-3D-3D)
By Edward Lempinen | Media Relations
Nov. 10, 2022
https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6gTQXqoFtB58fI1KeAEfz1w38gIA-2FbaLBLHim4sA4dPclWH6YtbJWHXuPXt4xtRs3KN6wZBw8SCNyyM9UElnS8UioW9X3ILEMRH1-2Bjsd0ecLMuRTtfxSMFMnK-2FzSSZpodYvBpPbs1ce1nLFkmYksCnw-3DEXtN_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewcGB1YXj9TrwmObNyRUOsMX2dsgg0d1oCr5-2FU0ovZc2tqRNa-2BkL6RzbZ0POd0a8qiTkCxXkqoqA0DtxSs3h1D9RL4pjIpJ8n7MjodOpgFigge0C3ULjcFGuC9ScpYeDrOM6vDINvacJ3iQZOOhcNrb8M0MgawGNG6tittsnQd16dlRWeICbyLd5Sz1KeTzccFA-3D-3D
A possible 2024 presidential campaign between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (left) and former President Donald Trump could produce a firefight — and push the GOP even further to the right, Berkeley scholars say. (Photo illustration by Neil Freese, UC Berkeley, from photos by Gage Skidmore, Flickr)
Berkeley — Within a day after the midterm elections, a narrative emerged among mainstream political analysts: Given the setbacks suffered by some GOP candidates endorsed by Donald Trump and the strong re-election victory by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, GOP insiders would work to clear the way for DeSantis to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2024.
But top UC Berkeley political scientists, in interviews yesterday, offered a different picture: Efforts by party leaders to derail Trump have failed repeatedly since he first campaigned for the presidency in 2015. He still holds a powerful corps of the GOP base. And because of his combative nature, he certainly — or almost certainly — will not go quietly.
More likely, the scholars said, Trump, DeSantis and perhaps others will wage an escalating campaign for control of the GOP’s radicalized base, and the party, before the next election. And the political turbulence is likely to roil America’s entire political culture.
“I’m skeptical of the idea that Trump’s moment in the spotlight is passing or in decline just because some of his endorsed candidates didn’t perform as well as expected in the midterms,” said Charlotte Hill, director of the new [Democracy Policy Initiative](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6rqBFYL01v5XmXUZkQE3AtQRkjWtmNDlSgRUQ20INLmmDBbDhUvq7JWh-2F-2BF5zGHwrXzmVMz4Z5Ftn3GB2hBmy22Pik2Xv2yEHbzMSNC3cbMCAw72pdWbhCGR2ngtLiyB1w-3D-3DZlmm_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewTNGmsaM7gb-2FVdwVCKno5n-2Bf-2F-2B1zY7PI96tEK8Os-2BOvzL-2FULkv8qwHfqRWLqamdFFmjgUHlGdVf9Dlax0cmKjqyUxS91zXEYgVlK-2Bn-2FqJ6PmICz3iUwsS-2Fy167KMtAD4ul7-2BNfLejZSi-2BgVvHqt8mQf0JqV8PugP4dswb0-2FUchz6PQAd-2FQjBboFuckhmuFbbWw-3D-3D) at Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy.
“Trump really has positioned himself as the strongman authoritarian figure,” Hill added, “so it can make it hard to draw too many conclusions about his viability as a political leader from the performance of his preferred candidates. It’s very possible that right-leaning voters don’t like Trump’s acolytes, but they will continue to support him as the leader of the party.”
Added Henry Brady, former dean of the Goldman School: “Trump is weakened — but whether he’s weak is the big question.”
The midterms were hardly a full-on disaster for the former president. [A New York Times study](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6hgoqaL-2BohOC0J7kADrfydtm8j1JDKGVkcf7yvF-2BGe8daU-2FcXwihZNAb6hPUQRUNTkiXNQ6BYGP-2B3Zi-2BOssRJRQ5uqZGCbe2gegxne9GKdg8t-2FXbjJL-2Bx2tb7AZsVaRmNrjLJMmgqevLlcXaqeehnVo-3DtfKF_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewTRDY1aP-2BLzGlSIlS9nV-2BwkM78wBIujzWiC4zORA5rkYnQgLCGN9VKOgyoqwiFvbXyg7l5VjTbBbIjeQOE0ScgPGT2rulPhZu0odJ-2FoExRhDPF-2BlcGGoIU8Qh1MHz3mMVV98fvnB-2FyxPHrk2g1CzFxBgF95lik1mue3vWdvUQRrODWRebVXRHU4MlxYgTG2ijw-3D-3D) found that more than 200 candidates for state and national office won election after embracing Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him, or who questioned the outcome. Among the most dramatic wins was J.D. Vance, the writer [allied with a top conservative billionaire](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6qFwob4WVAc9Z5otCrKTzf-2FjnvSSLvD2bE0-2Fm-2FVrI1d82U1N6i8by5S7E9KB80pNm4esFDpDcQG5Wfdru-2B0i-2BV2JWVDZc0JQfqkqePSGjAEcGFk2B10m95qSD3U72r6-2F9XflLm1GtKlUkdv4q6qUi8I-3DWShK_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewWaV2-2Fr5l8AUWrtNnUdw-2BBKBqYXoaZ5FseZ6oncIyi3W8kWOPSWNyE3AcomQsgIdySnElixIxjlXHUqY-2BpgbIW1-2BTVlPQXDpWQuT3rrZ-2BTc3Q5ZVMH6SkETaHobXc-2BQEP4WzNllLOfqRB0j5K4tZN-2FnzrRYjhin5sW3P-2FLhxr-2Fmg2eB6VVqs6WaKRZTqC-2BG9MQ-3D-3D) and endorsed by Trump, who captured a U.S. Senate seat representing Ohio.
But in key battleground states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, Trump’s high-profile, right-wing U.S. candidates were either defeated, at risk of defeat or forced into a runoff election. The Berkeley political scientists said it seems increasingly likely that the Democrats will hold narrow control of the U.S. Senate. The outcome of the House races remains uncertain, though it seems possible that the Republicans will control the chamber with only a narrow margin over the Democrats.
Challenges, disruptions and threats across the political landscape
With the outcome still being resolved, the scholars see threat and instability across the political landscape. Some of that is the usual uncertainty that comes after an election.
For example, the Democrats are largely pleased with the outcome of the midterms, but they’re facing deep internal conflict over their struggle to connect with white working-class and rural voters. Many in the party are questioning whether U.S. President Joe Biden, now nearly 80, is too old to seek a second term.
But other challenges are unusual, linked to the nation’s polarization and a powerful anti-democratic movement based in the Republican Party.
Trump is facing investigations that could lead to criminal charges — and potentially to furious counterattacks.
Kari Lake, the hard-right, pro-Trump candidate for governor in Arizona, is trailing Democrat Katie Hobbs by a narrow margin, with tens of thousands of votes still to be counted. Already, Lake is suggesting [the election was rigged](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6tQEKEBsDCHtI2XsgV5L6FsUMftGGGnr1SHlQyd9rO4ojKoIQHZepg1b0-2FEamPvPPh4Pul7fSIoBTWw40BpYDDVZ3OPJUyVOsoJ4un6k0JF3XTuB_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewYU8VPrNabJorKcLtxuLOmWmJ3GyWnRu5fr34kyx8cGZpeWVnhLlWedbzuZswB6E8H8Xsdj0cxkLpU06Uv2ykequJUSS5wE7LgU5CHUvYIJH8fkuPEpVL3S96jJqp9WP1jFfA-2FOkxqUzVd0p4AtHCPPfKnai9I17T17O7IMF31KeBXwZ-2Foo-2Fkzf6-2FRqHEeKCCA-3D-3D) against her and seems poised to challenge the outcome.
In the U.S. House, even if Republicans win control, their majority will be narrow. Dozens of new members are 2020 election deniers, and at least [one has been linked](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6uPksVQ5T1RWlqZrAvZeVG80UBsNm2KlFUvIA4goxzHm5xpAHKcvqflWKVp8QL8Sb9fh3MWp9BtSFCetMSWSu3o4fXxFdINQZdn0G7AsTh8F9vDTxJdxZN5MwTj9tXq4iHYIG9bQfExlgbwZJexbkt8-3DQIcq_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewb39E2RZwSOFtH8y6Ve16E4o84BUJ9dBTzxDzrdElQ9oENy3oHLH-2Bnflh66Mf0KklVMhHDummxAunUQpCY5rSTVM6BscLsFFpGyKmFF0usAoERQgcr-2FzbbbzvAGXd4n285zVURhRO0d81XovKEBi4Ypd7MO3P7P3uMhAojX9lnGuGlBXTbYvHdZZO-2FKkk-2Bpdyw-3D-3D) to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Some GOP leaders promise a range of investigations into Biden and other Democrats that would inject more chaos and division into governance.
Could the Republicans move even further right?
The Berkeley scholars saw little sign that Republicans are ready to moderate their politics. Indeed, an internal fight could reinforce the party’s hard-right turn — or drive the party and its base further to the right, they said.
Even before the election, DeSantis was widely seen as a potential challenger to Trump. The question was whether he would risk running a campaign against a still-popular former president. But after his huge re-election in Florida this week, DeSantis’ calculation may have shifted.
At a victory celebration, his supporters chanted, “Two more years!” signaling a readiness to take Trump on in 2024. Among party leaders and donors, there may be rising interest in DeSantis, said Eric Schickler, co-director of the [Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies](https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=uDPfAnrJXoDw8-2BCe3b2e6pgj2dY1UfLim7OhGO31nys9GSZGnc3IOJQtvYK6xnZBwbNJ_mLoYh0p4AWg4foFr5HgrZ1QioQ33bLwdnQ-2BsYGKFX9mv8wVBOgi5GpVq-2FNhlrfTl-2BTI61oGMQNfTGLPKQc-2F-2BKWIb2uEidh5Cy9Snrxt2Kvdg46NMTv1EBYVNMuj4LXg-2FZfe-2BOaHZw-2BTmZyzGwYTlcMhSKHZw66xg7TfZxbCtJPblrLAjhqx9jxdn-2B-2BO3WOR1DIJIbhYCIHKCuQvRTDYewZ-2FJbQOUIjixxS4ZV7rBQHDmiw1To9UxRENOKw0HUSU6X1TuTGtDiQyBT9X1AczKnG7BsBWF1ehKmEXKSF-2BaSsOsaK-2BaXGYZgtOAsYpZl2ij28sInpjPMZj1TqzuqFqloEOAUeNWwj-2FJwisfwOslyDOgFjuByrE9f6ryRvgxznnNXA5AOBSU4OIM7nv-2Bd1pYyA-3D-3D).
“There has long been a contingent of Republicans looking for a way to get past Trump, or beyond Trump,” Schickler said. “But they’ve been stymied by the fact that Trump is the one figure who’s been most successful in mobilizing the party base.”
Schickler said the GOP’s setbacks Tuesday raised the odds that DeSantis will run — and that he’ll find support among some party leaders who find him “less erratic” than Trump.
But far from moderating the party’s rightward momentum, that could reinforce it.
Trump and DeSantis have a lot in common, the scholars said. Both are hard-right. Both are fighters who aren’t afraid of causing offense. And that raises a question: How far would they go to win the hearts of a radicalized base?
Their contest might result in a noisy, divisive campaign, but in Schickler’s view, that’s not unusual in U.S. politics. Think Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in 2008, or Clinton and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2016. After the campaign was settled, the foes quickly joined forces.
“It’s potentially very different with somebody like Trump,” he explained, “just because you can’t assume he’ll be a team player afterwards.”