(AGENPARL) – mar 11 luglio 2023 [IMF Country Reports](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/scr1_sp.aspx?s_year=1997&e_year=2012&brtype=default)
[Open in your browser](http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/07/10/United-Kingdom-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-535878?cid=em-COM-123-46886)
http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/07/10/United-Kingdom-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-535878?cid=em-COM-123-46886
[Country Report No. 2023/252 : United Kingdom: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom](http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/07/10/United-Kingdom-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-535878?cid=em-COM-123-46886)
JULY 11, 2023
http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/07/10/United-Kingdom-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-535878?cid=em-COM-123-46886
Market stress following the September 2022 ‘mini-budget’ has dissipated, in the context of a successful financial stability intervention by the Bank of England (BoE) and two prudent budgets. Post-Brexit uncertainty has declined somewhat due to the Windsor Framework agreement to resolve disputes around the Northern Ireland Protocol. Still, the economy faces several challenges. The post-pandemic recovery was disrupted by the sharp energy price shock due to Russia’s war in Ukraine; labor force participation has declined, mainly on account of rising long-term illness; and large policy rate increases—needed to arrest high and sticky inflation—have tightened financial conditions. Accordingly, and despite recent upgrades, GDP growth is forecast at a modest 0.4 percent for 2023, followed by 1 percent growth in 2024. Lower energy prices and emerging economic slack is projected to help reduce headline inflation to around 5¼ percent by end-2023 and to the 2 percent target by mid-2025. Risks are tilted to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation. Tighter-than-expected global financial conditions present the key downside risk to growth, while robust wage growth and greater inflation persistence pose upside risks to inflation.
[READ MORE](http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/07/10/United-Kingdom-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-535878?cid=em-COM-123-46886)
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