(AGENPARL) – gio 20 aprile 2023 Inflation is back!
Different sources of inflation
across the Atlantic
Demand
in the goods and
services sectors
monthly
and quarterly data
; indices: Jan.
2020 / 2019 Q4
= 100
��US excess demand very high after the pandemic shock
Goods sector
Services sector
Natural gas prices
(daily data)
The current situation
Headline and core inflation
(monthly data; annual percentage changes)
��Core inflation
lion’s
the rise
headline
inflation; food and energy prices
the euro
Drivers of changes in inflation expectations
(daily; percentage changes)
��Higher euro
area medium
term inflation
expectations
mostly due to
supply
The effectiveness of the
ECB monetary policy
Real interest rates in the euro area
(per cent)
��Real interest rates picking up
Term structure, 1
year forward rates
erm structure, spot rates
��10
Short
term inflation expectations
have fallen
sharply;
longer
��11
Inflation tail risks in the euro area
(daily data; per cent)
��Some decline in the probability of high inflation (tail risk)
over the next 5 years
��12
Credit and money growth in the euro area
(monthly data; 3
month and 12
month annualised percentage changes)
��Credit
and money
dynamics
have significantly
weakened
Credit to firms
M1 and M3
Looking ahead: outlook and risks
��13
��14
Credit
standards for loans to euro
area firms
(quarterly data; percentage balance)
��Significant
tightening in credit supply conditions
��15
Estimates of mark
ups for Germany and Italy
annual and quarterly data; 2018 and 2018Q4 = 100
��Past changes in profit margins. Risks of second
round effects?
Germany
Italy
OMFIF
University
College London