(AGENPARL) – ven 10 febbraio 2023 The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world. []
[Hero weekend read]
Dear Colleague,
In today’s edition, we highlight:
– China’s reopening
– Central bank groupthink
– Latin America’s social tensions
– France’s reforms
– Globalization to slowbalization
CHINA OUTLOOK
(Credit: SeanPavonePhoto/Getty Images Pro)
China’s economy is set to rebound this year as mobility and activity pick up after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, providing a boost to the global economy.
“That’s good news for China and the world as the Chinese economy is now expected to contribute a quarter of global growth this year.”
But the authors say China still faces significant economic challenges, including a contraction in real estate and uncertainty around the evolution of the virus. Longer-term, headwinds to growth include a shrinking population and slowing productivity growth.
In this podcast, IMF economists Sonali Jain-Chandra and Thomas Helbling walk us through China’s latest economic review and explain how the ailing real estate sector is weighing on the outlook.
They propose a set of reforms to monetary policy committees, including greater diversity, full-time status, accountability for individual views, further steps to avoid political interference, and greater efforts to communicate clearly to the public.
MANAGING DIRECTOR INTERVIEW
Risks to the global economy
A debt default by the United States would cause significant damage to the global economy, but history suggests that Congress usually finds a solution, Kristalina Georigeva tells CBS’s 60 Minutes in a wide-ranging interview.
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LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK
(Credit: Alexis Gonzalez/iStock by Getty Images)
Slowing economic growth, high inflation and global uncertainty mean that many people in Latin America will see their living standards decline this year and will likely face increased anxiety about their future.
Social tensions were certainly exacerbated during the pandemic. Poorer people—particularly those employed in in-person services—bore the brunt of the economic fallout.
“While government support helped, many were unable to fully insulate themselves from the negative impact, as shown by the noticeable increase in poverty.”
Policies must focus on securing economic stability, spurring growth and job creation, supporting entrepreneurship, and attending to the pressing social needs facing many people in the region, the authors say.
“This will help to mitigate social discontent and restore confidence in public institutions.”
FRANCE OUTLOOK
(Credit: tigristiara/iStock by Getty Images)
After a strong economic recovery from the pandemic, France was hit by an energy shock driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, yet the economy has remained resilient and inflation well below other EU countries.
But France’s budget deficit has remained high and public debt is increasing relative to euro-area peers, partly due to costly and poorly targeted support measures.
In a speech to the International Financial Markets conference in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, Alfred Kammer, director of the IMF’s European Department, called for tight monetary policy because inflation could prove stickier than market participants assume.