(AGENPARL) - Roma, 28 Luglio 2023 - (AGENPARL) – ven 28 luglio 2023 The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world. []
[Hero weekend read]
Dear Colleague,
In today’s edition, we highlight:
– World economic outlook
– Inflation risk to financial markets
– Tuvalu’s resilience to rising seas
– West Indian cricket
– Exchange arrangements and restrictions
The Weekend Read will be on holiday in August but returns in September with more IMF analysis of the global economy and policy issues shaping the world.
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
(Credit: Quietword/Adobe Stock)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas says that economic activity in the first quarter of the year proved resilient, as energy and food prices fell sharply from their war-induced peaks, allowing global inflation pressures to ease faster than expected. Financial instability following the March banking turmoil remains contained thanks to forceful action by the US and Swiss authorities, he adds.
Under the IMF’s baseline forecast, growth will slow from last year’s 3.5 percent to 3 percent this year and next, a 0.2 percentage points upgrade for 2023 from our April projections. Global inflation is projected to decline from 8.7 percent last year to 6.8 percent this year, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision, and 5.2 percent in 2024.
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Global growth losing momentum
FINANCIAL STABILITY
(Credit: Blue Planet Studio/Adobe Stock)
Despite continued monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, financial conditions—as proxied by financing costs faced by firms and households in housing, credit, and equity markets—have eased notably in the United States and euro area in recent quarters in part reflecting investors’ relatively benign outlook for price pressures.
While financial conditions are currently tighter than the extremely loose levels seen in mid-2021, the recent easing may complicate the fight against inflation by preventing the slowdown in aggregate demand that may be needed to tamp down inflation pressures, Tobias Adrian says in the blog co-authored by Fabio Natalucci and Jason Wu.
TUVALU
(Credit: Adobe Stock)
Tuvalu’s population of 11,000 is spread across nine Pacific islands that rise less than five meters above sea level, underscoring its extraordinary challenges from climate change.
“Such scenarios pose an existential threat to Tuvalu, just as they do to hundreds of millions around the world also living close to sea level. Ultimately, Tuvalu’s climate change plight underscores the responsibility of the global community to urgently step-up efforts to reduce global emissions.”
CURRENCY NOTES
(Credit: William Vanderson/Getty Images)
When the central bank of Barbados was thinking through which features to prioritize as part of a recent redesign of its banknotes, the top priority was that the notes be authentically Barbadian. “Each note talks about our history, geography, and culture,” says Octavia Gibson, director of the bank’s currency and payments oversight department.
And what could be more Barbadian than cricket? It’s a sport in which the country has traditionally excelled. So it’s fitting that the Barbadian $5 note features cricket legend Frank Worrell. Together with Everton Weekes and Clyde Walcott, Worrell was one of the famous “Three W’s”—the strongest middle-order batters in the world at the time.
[cotw]
Weekly Roundup
ANNUAL REPORT
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Thank you again very much for your interest in the Weekend Read! Be sure to let us know what issues and trends we should have on our radar.
[nick]
Nick Owen
Editor
IMF Weekend Read