(AGENPARL) - Roma, 10 Ottobre 2022 - (AGENPARL) – lun 10 ottobre 2022 I wish to thank ANIA for inviting me to open this high-level event. I shall start with an
In the second quarter of 2022, the Italian GDP grew by 1.1 per cent with respect to the
previous three months, well above expectations, and showing remarkable resilience
given the circumstances. Both industrial and services production increased. Domestic
demand was the driving force: household consumption growth was strong (2.6 per
per cent quarter-on-quarter, pulled both by machinery and construction expenditure.
have decreased slightly in the third quarter, though more strongly in manufacturing;
the service sector appears to have continued to grow, mainly owing to a good tourist
season. The negative impact of the high energy prices and the global slowdown are
for the next. Still, in our baseline projection, the change in GDP is expected to remain
the second half of the year. In an adverse scenario, however, which assumes a stronger,
more protracted impact of the war on energy availability and prices, as well as on world
trade and uncertainty, the economy would continue to contract for a few more quarters,
Needless to say, the uncertainty surrounding such projections is high. Very much depends
increase of food prices. Energy prices kept increasing, by 45 per cent year-on-year.
services and non-energy industrial goods.
used to measure them, but have been on the increase. According to the September
around 4.3 per cent, more than one point higher than the in previous month’s estimates.
Despite these developments, in August contractual wage growth was broadly stable, at
1.0 per cent year-on-year in the non-agricultural private sector. Looking ahead, forceful
Price stability is the lodestar of central banks. Central banks all over the world have
Many governments in Europe have adopted measures to mitigate the immediate impact
While it makes sense to smooth temporary peaks, it is important to remember that energy
to go up to achieve our stated long-term goal of climate transition; the current
turbulence makes that goal even more vital. Relative price signals should, by and large,
be preserved, also to help balance demand and supply in the current circumstances.
Collectively, there is no escaping the ‘unavoidable tax’
imposed on us by higher fossil
fuel prices – except by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Keeping prices low
and environmental burden once again to the next generations, which will inherit from us
worldwide. Real rates increased at all maturities and share prices fell, amid rising
to the stronger impact of the war in Ukraine. Tensions emerged in some key currency
volatile, and exposed to changes in investor sentiment; in this context, the importance
increase because of weakening growth and increasing debt servicing costs. Tensions on
have already started to spill over to substitutes (coal for instance, and also elements used
in the production and storage of renewable energy such as lithium and nickel), and to
vulnerability. On the other hand, in Italy stability risks stemming from households appear
limited overall, thanks to low indebtedness; the increase in energy prices, though,
Bank credit to the Italian private sector continued to expand at a robust pace in
recent months. The Italian banking system is facing the risks linked to the current
quality remains good on average, and the new non-performing loan ratio is still low,
although the share of Stage-2 (i.e., riskier) performing loans has started to increase.
than before the pandemic. With all this, banks remain highly exposed to cyclical risks,
and should cautiously factor in all uncertainties when making their risk and capital
At the end of June, Italian insurers’ average solvency ratio had declined by just three
percentage points with respect to the end of 2021, remaining at a robust 257 per cent.
capital adequacy and liquidity, this position had not substantially changed by August.
negative since May. Combined with a decreasing life premium income, this fact is driving
On the liquidity side, our monthly monitoring indicates a gradual increase in the ratio
of insurance surrender to premium income, the former having increased by 10 per cent
to the latter’s 7 per cent. While there are no reasons for immediate concern, companies
should monitor liquidity developments carefully and be prepared to possible shifts of
Substantially positive interest rates are not, in themselves, bad at all for the insurance
industry’s viability. Quite the contrary: as long as rates stayed low or negative, it had
normalisation is therefore fundamentally welcome. The transition, however, might be
In this context of increased uncertainty, a few days ago the European Systemic Risk
The warning, though mainly addressed to the banking industry, states that “[f]inancial
stability risks beyond the banking sector should also be addressed. This requires
may need to make use of their supervisory powers to mitigate the consequences of
impaired. Relevant authorities should also continue to monitor risks closely and enhance
the risk environment and by heeding supervisors’ guidance and expectations, non-bank
tail risk scenarios from materialising. For insurers, this means paying close attention to
as well as those borne by individual insurers. Enhanced dialogue with supervised
undertakings is in place, in line with both our long-standing supervisory approach
and the above-mentioned ESRB warning.
As highlighted in my concluding statement to the 2021 Ivass Annual Report, by ensuring
heeding supervisors’ guidance and expectations, insurers can further strengthen their