(AGENPARL) – lun 24 luglio 2023 [ISW Logo]
Ukraine’s Sustained Counteroffensive: Denying Russia’s Prolongation of the War
By [Nataliya Bugayova](https://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001k8GospRL7e5GMiavZpTvTtM7J1joCcGFbus36LfPEE3hJUJJq03B5DaEo7QozyLbfpdLlIg-ecXJS2hpCFvqjcaZYMvz-5uGpaWSbdPuXHdp3tvGJ0Jiw0RJnk4uQ_nOpz5q91_ey0z3uNkvXogWT_6gzYBOfmkD_9A6oQTMfOWlqDbfTI_8xj3iBR5HQLuwwtdXsEvx0bThFyVRATaMRA==&c=PJtHSdDDj7qkoBndeLz8374-CoXJR5Y9c9NsDqSzl864tnXsSIUQNA==&ch=1XbNrAhdHHzM3uqPNi0mh2dvlT46rSRlPJp1elukVz2sxIbOrfErKw==)
July 24, 2023, 4:00pm ET
The West risks handing the Kremlin another opportunity to prolong its war in Ukraine if it fails to resource Ukraine’s sustained counteroffensive. Delays and fragmented aid are exactly what allowed Russia to regroup prior to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The West must not wait on the results of the current phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and, instead, help Ukraine maintain its momentum to prevent Russia from rebuilding its military strength and prolonging the war.
The Western discussion of the prospects and timeline of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is skewed by a Western desire to see quick wins and Russia’s efforts to portray Ukraine’s counteroffensive as a failing undertaking. The discussion of Ukraine’s counteroffensive should recognize the following realities, however.
Ukraine, with Western support, has achieved substantial military results over the past 17 months. Ukraine prevented the Kremlin from achieving its initial objectives in this war to invade and conquer Ukraine in a matter of days. Ukraine has reversed many of Russia’s gains, liberated about 75,000 square km of its territory, and prevented Russia from establishing control even over Donbas – despite Russia occupying much of the region for the past eight years. Ukraine was able to seize the initiative on the battlefield twice, in the summer of 2022 and in the spring of 2023.
Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive cannot be expected to be fast and easy; it is inherently hard for several reasons:
– Russia had time to regroup and prepare for the inevitable Ukrainian counteroffensive, and Ukrainian forces now face prepared defensive Russian positions, including massive mine fields and layered field fortifications, and partially reconstituted Russian forces.
– Ukraine is attempting combined arms operations without air superiority and with limited enablers for maneuvering, such as air defenses – an extraordinarily challenging undertaking. Ukraine’s counteroffensive forces additionally had limited time to prepare for a major offensive.
– Ukraine, unlike Russia, is optimizing its operations to preserve its own forces at the cost of slower advances.