(AGENPARL) – Tue 08 July 2025 [cid:fbae88f4-4adc-43ca-88d0-80e9f35625d1]
Ready, set, anticipate!
Five essentials anticipatory action saves in case emergencies strike
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© FAO/Fahad Kaizer
Many disasters, whether man-made or weather-related, are unpredictable. Nevertheless, a growing number of disasters can now be predicted thanks to continuously improving early warning systems. And these warnings must be heeded. Action before disasters strike can help limit the devastating impact that these have on people and communities everywhere.
As extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and humanitarian needs are soaring, it is more crucial than ever to ensure that each dollar goes further. With this in mind, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) promotes anticipatory action to help people in vulnerable situations stay steps ahead and weather the storm.
In the food security and agriculture sector, anticipatory action is about acting early to safeguard the assets and agency of farmers, fishers and herders when disaster strikes, preserving their capacity to produce food, no matter the context. In 2024 alone, FAO supported 1.77 million people through anticipatory action.
In case disaster strikes, anticipatory action saves and safeguards the essentials. Here are just five of them:
1. Lives
In 2023, heavy flooding caused by El Niño were looming in Somalia. FAO-led early warning systems and a coordinated anticipatory action plan helped the government implement flood defence infrastructure and evacuation planning. This response resulted in a substantially lower loss of life, compared to a similar El Niño event in 1997 when the death toll exceeded 2 000.
This applies to livestock as well, which are a critical source of food and income for many communities. In Colombia, for example, in 2023, when El Niño-induced dwindling rainfall and water scarcity were in sight, FAO distributed fodder and water conservation equipment to communities, as well as provided training on animal health. Those communities who received support reported no drought-related goat deaths as opposed to the 20 percent mortality rate of goats in neighbouring communities.
2. Livelihoods
FAO’s anticipatory action helps rural communities continue to produce food and safeguard their crops and livestock in the face of various hazards.
When assistance is provided ahead of disasters, households can avoid resorting to negative coping mechanisms such as skipping meals, reducing meal sizes, falling into debt or pulling children out of school. Investing in agricultural equipment also ensures that communities can withstand shocks without an impact on their food security.
In 2023, FAO supported communities in Madagascar who were vulnerable to drought by helping them preserve livestock productivity. Through the distribution of animal feed, cash assistance and training on livestock health, households were able to produce an additional 17 litres of milk (per day/per cow) despite the drought conditions.
Sustaining milk production during shocks is critical for combating child malnutrition—as a litre of milk can provide half the calories needed by a 5-year-old child—while also preserving the health of animals that provide families with the income needed to meet essential needs.
3. Time
As its name suggests, anticipatory action is about leveraging risk analyses and forecasts to take preventative and proactive measures. This approach allows communities to be prepared ahead of a disaster, saving crucial time.
Technological advances are now allowing for easier forecasting of natural and other hazards. For example, in 2024, as the peak monsoon flood threatened communities along the Jamuna River basin in Bangladesh, early warning flood alerts prompted action. Within 16 minutes of the alert, the Central Emergency Response Fund had allocated USD 6.2 million for assistance.
As a result, FAO, along with other agencies of the United Nations, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society and the government reached 500 000 people with assistance, saving lives and livelihoods in what would otherwise have been a disastrous flood. FAO was specifically able to provide animal feed and help households protect food and feed from the rising water, thereby safeguarding their livelihoods and food security.
4. Money
When it comes to numbers, anticipatory action has proven its value.
According to an FAO report on the Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security, every USD 1 invested in anticipatory action yields up to USD 7 in avoided disaster losses, such as avoided animal mortality or avoided loss of crop or milk production.
Anticipatory action helps to circumvent inflation and shortages. Since prices are typically lower pre-crisis than in its aftermath, purchasing supplies beforehand has economic advantages. For example, in Bangladesh, the price of animal feed was about 15 percent lower before flooding in 2020 than after. Helping farmers procure feed prior to flooding led to higher livestock productivity. FAO also distributed storage drums which allowed households to store essential items in preparation of flooding.
As supply shortages and higher costs often follow natural hazards or other disasters, gathering supplies and protecting infrastructure ahead of shocks is a cost-effective approach, and it facilitates a smoother, more rapid early response after a disaster hits.
5. Self-reliance and dignity
The pre-emptive approach is about more than just saving time and numbers —it is about helping communities maintain self-reliance and build resilience.
In the Philippines, for instance, anticipatory action helped people avoid falling into vicious debt cycles. The distribution of drought-tolerant seeds ahead of the exceptionally dry 2019 farming season prevented farmers from having to resort to buying seeds on credit with high interest rates. By preventing the cycle of debt, anticipatory action helps farmers face the future on their own terms, giving them the confidence to invest in their land.
Acting before a disaster hits is a cost-effective and efficient way to save lives. Anticipatory action addresses humanitarian needs and helps communities be prepared for future risks, while improving resource allocation and making humanitarian response timelier and more cohesive.
FAO thanks its resource partners— in particular, the Governments of Belgium, Canada, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as well as the European Union and the Central Emergency Response Fund—for their generous contributions to its anticipatory action work.
The story and photos can be found here: https://www.fao.org/newsroom/story/ready-set-anticipate/en
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