(AGENPARL) – ven 16 giugno 2023 The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world.
View as a webpage [ https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USIMF/bulletins/360306a ]
Hero weekend read
Dear Colleague,
In today's edition, we highlight:
* Euro area's economic outlook
* Fiscal risks in the Middle East
* Claudia Goldin on family economics
* South Africa's slow growth
* Regional trade agreements
EURO AREA
Economy To Recover Slowly After Slipping Into Recession [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/15/euro-area-imf-staff-concluding-statement-of-2023-mission-on-common-policies-for-member-countries?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
Euro area [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/15/euro-area-imf-staff-concluding-statement-of-2023-mission-on-common-policies-for-member-countries?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
(Credit: Travel_Motio/iStock by Getty Images)
After slipping into recession earlier this year, economic activity in the euro area is likely to recover only modestly throughout 2023 and 2024, IMF staff said in a statement [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/15/euro-area-imf-staff-concluding-statement-of-2023-mission-on-common-policies-for-member-countries?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ] on Friday.
A slow recovery in real incomes, further easing of supply constraints and firmer external demand will support activity across the 20-member bloc that shares the euro even as financial conditions continue to tighten, staff said at the end of a regular review of the economy, known as an Article IV consultation [ https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/IMF-Surveillance?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ].
While headline inflation has fallen sharply, core inflation has proven more persistent. This partly reflects the delayed transmission of lower commodity prices into consumer prices and firms’ ability to protect or increase profits, staff said.
“Monetary policy must continue to tighten to bring inflation to target in a timely manner. Fiscal consolidation should also proceed to ease inflation pressures and rebuild fiscal space.”
MANAGING DIRECTOR PRESS CONFERENCE
Euro area monetary tightening should continue
MD presser [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/16/tr061623-transcript-of-the-mds-press-conference-on-the-euro-area-article-iv-consultation?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
Kristalina Georgieva welcomed the European Central Bank’s decision this week to raise interest rates to a 22-year high but told a press conference on Friday that inflation was still too high. “Monetary policy should continue to tighten and then remain in restrictive territory for some time,” she said.
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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Stronger Risk Management Could Reduce Fiscal Surprises [ https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/11/middle-east-north-africa-vulnerable-to-rising-fiscal-risks?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
Middle East North Africa [ https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/11/middle-east-north-africa-vulnerable-to-rising-fiscal-risks?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
(Credit: Vasili Binzari/iStock by Getty Images)
Public finances often end up far away from government plans, but stronger risk management can reduce budgetary surprises, IMF Deputy Managing Director *Antoinette M. Sayeh* writes in a blog [ https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/11/middle-east-north-africa-vulnerable-to-rising-fiscal-risks?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ].
Volatile economic growth, universal subsidies and loss-making state-owned enterprises expose many low- and middle-income economies to fiscal risks. These factors combine with adverse external developments such as recent interest-rate rises and commodity-price surges to put public finances under pressure in many countries.
The “MENAPEG” region—a group that includes economies in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan but excludes high-income Gulf countries—is especially vulnerable to fiscal risks. According to a new IMF paper [ https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/087/2023/005/087.2023.issue-005-en.xml?cid=bl-com-tw-MFRISCOTMEANAEA&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ], small fiscal risks occur in these countries every year. Larger shocks that cause debt to increase by an average of 12 percent of gross domestic product occur once every eight years, on average.
“Despite the frequency of these events, policymakers are often caught off guard,” Sayeh writes with co-authors Mahmoud Harb and Jacques Charaoui.
“Such shocks force them to make ad hoc cuts to development and other priority spending. This also limits many countries’ ability to use fiscal policy to smooth economic slowdowns, precisely when it is needed most.”
*Sayeh discussed fiscal risks with Egypt’s finance minister Mohamed Maait, Jordan’s finance minister Mohamad Al Ississ and other senior officials at a conference on Sunday. Watch here [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Conferences/2023/06/11/expecting-the-unexpected?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ].*
Claudia Goldin [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2023/06/09/claudia-goldin-on-family-economics?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
The history of economics has largely been written by men about men. Even when the economics of family became a burgeoning field of study in the 1970s, the woman’s role was hardly talked about. Harvard University’s Claudia Goldin is a pioneer in the field of gender economics. In this podcast [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2023/06/09/claudia-goldin-on-family-economics?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ], Goldin discusses her work and how she came to write the definitive book on gender economics, Understanding the Gender Gap. The interview is part of the IMF series on extraordinary Women in Economics [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/Playlists?playlist=Women+In+Economics&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ].
FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT
The Rise of Discriminatory Regionalism [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/the-rise-of-discriminatory-regionalism-michele-ruta?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
Ruta [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/the-rise-of-discriminatory-regionalism-michele-ruta?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
(Credit: Robert Briggs/Adobe Stock)
Regional trade agreements have helped rewrite trade rules and reshape both trade and nontrade outcomes, writes [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/the-rise-of-discriminatory-regionalism-michele-ruta?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ] the IMF’s *Michele Ruta* writes in an article [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/the-rise-of-discriminatory-regionalism-michele-ruta?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ] in Finance & Development Magazine.
Yet many observers see regionalism and multilateralism as opposing forces. Some believe that global tensions that are weakening the multilateral trading system—including protectionism and rising nationalism—will inevitably push governments toward more and stronger regional pacts, he writes.
“At the end of the day, there is no choice between regionalism and multilateralism; there is only a choice between integration and disintegration. A revival of multilateralism is necessary to complement RTAs in an age of conflict.”
This article features in the June edition of F&D [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]. Focusing on *Trade, Disrupted*, eminent voices discuss economic security, geoeconomic fragmentation, industrial policy, export controls, regional trade agreements, tech’s effect on trade, green trade tensions, trade’s impact on women, and much more. 
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SOUTH AFRICA
Growth Too Slow To Curb Record Joblessness [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/15/cf-south-africas-economy-loses-momentum-amid-record-power-cuts?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
SA [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/15/cf-south-africas-economy-loses-momentum-amid-record-power-cuts?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]
(Robf73/iStock by Getty Images)
South Africa’s economy grew by 0.4 percent between January and March this year and by year-end, we project real GDP growth to fall sharply from last year, reports an IMF Country Focus article [ https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/15/cf-south-africas-economy-loses-momentum-amid-record-power-cuts?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]. Though growth [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/06/06/South-Africa-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-534271?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ]should [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/06/06/South-Africa-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-534271?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ] pick up [ https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/06/06/South-Africa-2023-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-534271?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery ] again in 2024, the pace is too slow to reduce unemployment, which at 32.9 percent remains close to an all-time high.
Reforms are needed to address the country’s energy and logistical constraints, reduce barriers to private sector investment, address structural rigidities in the labor market, and tackle crime and corruption.