
(AGENPARL) – BRUXELLES lun 20 marzo 2023 The surge in inflation rates experienced by the euro area since the beginning of 2021 is rooted in supply shocks that have led to bottlenecks and an energy crisis. This paper shows that the shifts of inflation expectations into prices could cause some persistence in the excessive inflation process. In this last respect, the flatness of the Phillips curve implies that the unemployment-inflation sacrifice ratio is high; hence, there are substantial costs of bringing inflation down through a contraction in aggregate demand. However, a restrictive monetary policy stance appears unavoidable to keep inflation expectations anchored. A compelling policy mix can overcome this trade-off by supporting a favourable scenario with a soft landing of the economy and an inflation rate returning to target at the medium-long horizon.
This paper was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit (EGOV) at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 20 March 2022.
Fonte : © Unione europea, 2023 – PE
Fonte/Source: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/it/document/IPOL_IDA(2023)741480