(AGENPARL) – ven 27 gennaio 2023 The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world. []
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Dear Colleague,
In today’s edition, we highlight:
– The costs of misreading inflation
– The managing director in Africa
– Haiti’s Food Shock Financing
– World Uncertainty Index
FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT
(Credit: Adobe Stock/Aerial-Drone)
Even as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other policymakers insisted that inflation was only transitory in late 2021, there were signs from the shipping industry of more persistent price pressures.
Given the actual increase in global shipping costs during 2021, they estimate that the impact on inflation in 2022 was more than 2 percentage points—a huge effect that few central banks would dismiss.
“While policymakers may get a pass for not factoring into their decisions what was unknowable a year ago, they should be held accountable for missing known drivers of inflation, especially those that pointed to enduring price pressures,” Ostry writes.
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MANAGING DIRECTOR IN AFRICA
Reform progress in Rwanda and Zambia
[MD visits Africa]
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GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS
(Credit: Getty Images/Emily_M_Wilson)
Haiti has been hit hard by the global food price shock. Record price inflation has worsened the Caribbean nation’s fragility. With more than half the population already below the poverty line, Haiti faces a dire humanitarian crisis, with an expected financing gap of at least $105 million this fiscal year. This shock compounds the hardships of an already highly fragile country—also suffering a cholera health emergency and serious security risks.
As well as filling the financing gap, Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said IMF emergency support would “support those most affected by food price rises through feeding programs and cash and in-kind transfers to vulnerable households, waives school fees and other measures.”
In a blog last year, the IMF’s managing director said only rapid action could ease suffering of those without enough to eat and provide financing to countries in need.
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The shocks that have shaken the global economy in recent years have introduced a new normal for turbulence, driven in some cases by political fragmentation between countries. These episodes have also lifted uncertainty to exceptionally high levels, which in turn hurts economic growth. As the Chart of the Week shows, the IMF’s World Uncertainty Index has fallen for the most recent month of data but has continued to hit elevated levels in recent times owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and other shocks.
Weekly Roundup
STAFF PAPER
STAFF PAPER
[Mark your calendar]
MARK YOUR CALENDER
JAN 30, 8:30 PM EST | JAN 31, 9:30 AM SGT
World Economic Outlook Update
The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, will launch the World Economic Outlook Update at a press briefing in Singapore.
JAN 30, 9:00 AM EST | JAN 30, 3:00 PM CET
Middle East and North Africa in 2023
Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, will present analysis of the outlook at an online event hosted by Mediterranean Dialogues.
Thank you again very much for your interest in the Weekend Read! Be sure to let us know what issues and trends we should have on our radar.
[nick]
Nick Owen
Editor
IMF Weekend Read