(AGENPARL) – BETHESDA (MARYLAND), gio 03 dicembre 2020
This data note looks at state Medicaid managed care enrollment data through September 2020 to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis on Medicaid enrollment. Data collected for 30 states show Medicaid managed care enrollment increased to 11.3% from March 2020 through September 2020 (Figure 1). The rate accelerated from the 4.1% reported for 27 states from March 2020 through May 2020 and reversed trends from March 2019 to March 2020 when aggregate growth declined. These trends mirror national enrollment trends that show enrollment growth has been accelerating post-pandemic. Rising unemployment (and loss of employer sponsored insurance) as well as the “maintenance of eligibility” (MOE) requirements tied to a 6.2 percentage point increase in the federal match rate (FMAP) authorized by the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) – which prevents states from disenrolling Medicaid beneficiaries if they accept the additional federal funding — are likely contributing to enrollment increases/growth across states.
Why is recent state MCO enrollment data an important indicator? Preliminary national Medicaid and CHIP enrollment data collected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is lagged and currently available through July 2020. These data show an increase in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment of 4.3 million or 6.1% from February through July. Our KFF Medicaid Managed Care Tracker tracks Medicaid enrollment in comprehensive Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs) for all states that make these data publicly available. These data are updated in our tracker annually with March enrollment data, but given changes related to the pandemic we updated the tracker with available enrollment for September 2020 to provide a more current look at enrollment trends.
These data are informative as more than two-thirds of beneficiaries nationally receive most or all of their care through risk-based MCOs and more than half of states that contract with MCOs enroll 75% or more of their Medicaid beneficiaries in MCOs. Children and nonelderly adults are groups more likely to be affected by changes in the economy and are also more likely to be enrolled in Medicaid MCOs. Increased enrollment in MCOs is directly tied to spending without immediate regard to utilization of care – which has generally decreased during the pandemic for non-urgent care – since states make upfront capitation payments to MCOs to provide access to a range of services. Thus, analyzing growth in Medicaid MCO enrollment specifically is valuable beyond signaling broader trends in Medicaid enrollment.
What were the trends prior to the pandemic? Data show that prior to the pandemic, there was an aggregate enrollment decline among reporting states. Specifically, among the 32 states reporting data for March 2019 and March 2020 (of the 40 states, including DC, that contract with MCOs), there was an aggregate decline of 1.3% (Table 1). The median change was essentially flat, showing a 0.4% increase, and there were a relatively equal number of states reporting enrollment gains and enrollment declines (17 and 15 respectively). In 2018, these states accounted for over 85% of the total share of enrollment in Medicaid MCOs nationally.
What are the more recent trends? The negative growth from March 2019 to March 2020 appears to reverse between March 2020 and May 2020, coinciding with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the 27 states reporting data for March 2020 and May 2020, all states reported growth with an aggregate enrollment increase of 4.1% (Table 1). The median growth increased to 4.6%. As the pandemic progressed, data comparing MCO enrollment from March 2020 to September 2020 show an even larger increase in growth. Among the 30 states reporting data in March 2020 and September 2020, the aggregate enrollment growth rate increased to 11.3% with the median growing to 10.9%. The six-month cumulative growth rates across states range from 5.1% (Tennessee) to 25.2% (Nevada) (Figure 2).
Parent firms, firms that own Medicaid MCOs in two or more states, saw large increases in both enrollment and market share. As of July 2018 (the latest period with national data) six parent firms – UnitedHealth Group, Centene, Anthem, Molina, Aetna, and WellCare – accounted for over 47% of all Medicaid MCO enrollment. In November 2018, Aetna was acquired by CVS and in 2020, WellCare was acquired by Centene. Now five parent firms dominante the market with a similar overall share of market enrollment. From March 2020 to September 2020, overall Medicaid MCO enrollment increased by around 5 million enrollees of which the five parent firms accounted for 60%, a bit above their overall market share (Figure 3).
What should we watch going forward? States project that the MOE requirements and economic downturn will continue to put upward pressure on Medicaid enrollment in FY 2021. As enrollment increases, so will enrollment in MCOs. At the same time, Medicaid MCOs, like other private insurance plans, are likely seeing decreases in health care use and expenses as a result of the pandemic. As MCO enrollment continues to rise putting pressure on overall state budgets, states may want to carefully review options to mitigate risks in MCO payment rates balancing potential overpayments to MCOs due to depressed utilization while also accounting for unanticipated costs related to COVID-19 testing and treatment and directed payments to providers.
|State||March 2019||March 2020||% Change: March 2019-March 2020||May 2020||% Change: March 2020-May 2020||September 2020||% Change: March 2020-September 2020|
|Overall||33 States Reporting||33 States Reporting||-1.3%||27 States Reporting||4.1%||31 States Reporting||11.3%|
|District of Columbia||194,896||183,764||-5.7%||187,680||2.1%||200,088||8.9%|
|NOTES: “NR” – Not Reported. Methodology for reporting enrollment data varies across states: some states report point in time (PIT) counts while other states report monthly averages.
AR, NH, NJ, RI, and UT did not report any data for any time periods.
Aggregate growth rates were calculated using states that reported in both periods. From March 2019 – March 2020, 32 states reported in both periods. From March 2020 – May 2020, 27 states reported in both periods. From March 2020 – September 2020, 30 states reported in both periods.
SOURCES: KFF analysis of state Medicaid managed care enrollment reports.